Putin's last hope

23 January, 01:20 PM
Putin (Photo:Reuters)

Putin (Photo:Reuters)

In his latest speech, Putin sent signals to Washington and the collective West. How were those signals received?

I listen to Putin's speeches not because I like to, but because I have to. I hate doing it, but what can I do? In his speech on January 18, Putin repeated the Kremlin's standard lie that Russia launched "the Special Military Operation" in Ukraine in order to stop the hostilities in Donbas that have been going on since 2014.

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His words are not just a lie, but something more fundamental. Putin has lived in a parallel reality for a long time. This can be difficult to imagine if you try to look at things objectively and stand on both feet on profane ground. He broke away from this profane world a long time ago, tearing away from his environment and, what is most regrettable, his people.

So what is happening in Russia? Messages come from above telling you how to lie. This lie goes through the decision-making circles, then is forwarded to the propaganda channels for dissemination. From there, it clogs the brain of every average Russian. Then it becomes a feedback loop when these average Russians cry out everything they are told and reinforce everything that Putin wants to hear.

What is happening in Russia reminds me of a circus

The feedback loop triggers an interesting phenomenon. The propagandist, who transmitted the information downwards, having now received it back from the masses, then begins to believe their own lie. This is the vicious circle that separates both Putin and the rest of Russia from what is actually happening outside of their windows.

I recently had a conversation with a colleague. He said: you know, what is happening in Russia reminds me of a circus. The problem is that the rabbit, the magicians, the audience, and most importantly, the circus director, believe that the rabbit appears out of the hat because of magic.

Putin believes 99% in his words. He believes that there are no Ukrainians. Why? Because at one point he sent this message down, the message spread, won 80% support, and returned to him. So Putin believes that his lie is the truth. Why did Putin spread this lie? Understanding this opens up more questions. Why did he read substandard books, who whispered in his ear, and what could be gained? Putin lives in a completely different reality. In that reality, he acts on what he erroneously believes to be true.

When you look beyond only Putin to Russian public discourse, you see that even ordinary Russians believe that they have come to liberate us. That is the tragedy.

But in his latest speech, Putin sent signals to Washington and the collective West. How were those signals received?

The answer came on January 18th from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: “This is a pivotal moment in the war and the need for a significant increase in support for Ukraine…If we want a negotiated peaceful solution tomorrow we need to provide more weapons today.” Putin can now talk about anything. In the West, they no longer believe a single word he says. His blustering about mobilizations - sometimes 500,000 soldiers, sometimes more, does not scare military specialists anymore. There are two reasons for this. Firstly, so many troops must not only be driven to assembly points, but also need to be clothed, fed, housed, and then taught how to fight. But if Putin runs around the world and asks for everything from whom he can still ask, it means that he has nothing besides cannon fodder. This cannon fodder is his last hope. He can simply fill the Ukrainian front with corpses and hope that works. In such cases, I please God to help defenders on the front to have 8-10 horns instead of two. When the first two run out they won’t have to wait for the rest.

Yes, we need to understand that Russian tactics have changed, but we must be prepared that they will try to expand to ever larger scales. If human life is worth nothing to Russians, they should bear responsibility for it.

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