Enough politics - we must avoid strategic defeat
The second anniversary of the full-scale invasion is coming up, and Ukraine is now in its worst condition in two years.
Society is tired and divided, exhausted by strife and despondency. The high expectations of 2023 have turned into disappointment, even for those who were never enchanted in the first place. The degree of unity and inspiration that existed in the early days is over.
The army is exhausted from fighting, lack of rotation, understaffing, lack of weapons and ammunition, incoherent communication, and a lack of understanding of what will happen to the command system. There will never be such a wave of volunteers as at the beginning.
It is time to come to our senses
Businesses have been deceived once again when recent promises to end government pressure were followed by draft laws that only make things worse. The share of entrepreneurs ready to simply close down has reached a record high.
Communication between the government and society has finally stopped. A single marathon, anonymous telegram channels, and upbeat bloggers cannot convey a position or maintain trust. We learn essential things from foreign media. Bottom-up feedback is completely blocked. Vital decisions are not discussed as a matter of principle.
The civil service is actually on the verge of extinction due to understaffing, low salaries, fear of persecution even for urgently needed decisions, and public hatred. The dishonest steal like it's the last day, while the virtuous hide like snails. Trust in state institutions, in general, is extremely low.
The political elite is focused on ratings and elections rather than on winning the war. This flawed system of priorities is costing more and more.
Foreign aid is coming in slower and in smaller amounts than needed. Our poor communication (weak messages and insufficient channels) is combined with the strategic confusion of our allies, who fear our defeat and victory in equal measure.
There is a threat of loss of macro-financial stability, a sharp depreciation of the hryvnia, and an outbreak of inflation (although intensive cooperation with the EU and the IMF may avert this threat).
This is all against the backdrop of a further unfolding demographic crisis, massive emigration and internal displacement, the growth of the shadow labor market, and an increase in the number of citizens needing social protection.
Then, it is combined with a decline in democracy, freedom of speech, transparency and accountability, local self-government, and other foundations of Ukrainian resilience - all against the backdrop of political strife and communication failures.
We have come the closest to a strategic defeat in 32 and a half years of independence. It will be followed by ruin, desolation, and genocide.
It is time to come to our senses.
The price of what can be lost is realized at the moment of loss.
According to the laws of the genre, it would be necessary to write a call to action. I don't have a call to action. Instead, it is a call to inaction addressed to a group of people who run the country. Stop it. Just stop the political games, ratings, and preparation for the elections. Stop rocking the boat. Sit back for a while, and have a rest. Let people breathe out. Give the parliament a chance to fix the urgent gaps in legislation and the government to fix the economy. Let the army fight, and let business people work. Leave people alone. The time for politics will come closer to victory. Now, we are closer to defeat. Just stop it.
Otherwise, the boat will sink, and there will be nothing to steer.
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