Ukraine’s Black Sea strategy
The strikes in the Black Sea should not be overestimated, but not underestimated either.
Regarding the impact of strikes on Russian military targets and infrastructure on the war: I don't know if the Kremlin is confused, but they are undoubtedly facing new challenges and new risks. This war is very difficult for us, as it always is when you fight an enemy bigger than you in manpower, armaments, economics, etc. But the advantage of the Ukrainian Defense Forces is a particular variety of means used. When the Russians get used to and adapt to a specific threat, the Defense Forces offer another one.
Strikes in the Black Sea, why are they important? I would neither exaggerate nor underestimate the importance of this. It is unrealistic to say that we are blocking the Black Sea. You need a navy to block the Black Sea; unfortunately, we don't have much of one. There is a small fleet of small ships, but we cannot have a full-fledged fleet that could compete with Russia. It is outdated, but large enough. We need an army of drones to control the entire water area.
Plus, there is also a political factor.
In addition to their warships, the Russians transport a significant portion of crude oil, oil products, and grain through the Black and Azov Seas ports. This does create specific problems for them, but there is one nuance that, unfortunately, is not usually mentioned, but it is present. If the full passage of ships to the Black and Azov Seas is disrupted, it will create some chaos in the markets. Many countries will not be interested in this, and there will be some pressure on Ukraine.
If we say that it should not be overestimated, it should not be underestimated either. It creates new threats for the Russians and new risks for them. It distracts a significant part of the personnel, a substantial amount of the equipment they have to use to monitor the water area, provide air defense systems, and deploy a new electronic warfare system. To a certain extent, it is not customary to say this out loud. Still, it is also a factor because effective enough strikes, including the destruction of a tanker and the destruction of a large amphibious assault ship, are very complex operations. To understand: these drones had to travel several hundred kilometers in a fairly busy space and hit the target. These are effective strikes; they put pressure on Russia and could be an additional argument to make it return to the grain deal. Right now, this track is being discussed with the active participation of Turkey. So, in addition to the military component, which is also very important, in addition to the psychological component, there is also a hidden political component.
The Black Sea is a vast area. There is also the Azov Sea, where we also work. To control it, they need to use, for example, specially equipped aircraft that control and monitor the water area. There are few of these planes, and they have to be distracted. They have to keep planes in the airspace to monitor the area. They have additional means to pull up, electronic warfare means. Because, for example, surface drones are speedy targets on the one hand, and very low visibility on the other. Therefore, you need to have additional electronic warfare capabilities to hit them. In principle, Russia has them, but they need to work more effectively or are not available in sufficient quantities. Therefore, these strikes were effective. This means they will also have to build up some part of the electronic warfare system. So this all creates additional problems, additional risks, and additional challenges. All of this is weakening them steadily, inexorably. Even if it is not so noticeable and cannot be compared to the liberation of hectares of territory or tens of kilometers, these are things that weaken the enemy every day. These are very tangible blows from the military, psychological, and political points of view.
We can make life much more difficult for Russia
I'm not the best expert in this area, but from the conclusions I can draw from talking to people who understand this better, we won't be able to block the sea. Let's face it. , but we cannot block the Black Sea. Not yet. But the security in the Black Sea is compromised, and ships do not leave on time; some ships will be afraid to enter the water area, which will happen. There is the stated position of the countries involved, and it has been repeatedly voiced, that there is a market, and there is business. Unfortunately, these are not always identical. When a large amount of crude oil and petroleum products are removed from the market, this will lead to an immediate price increase. There will be chaos, and it will be perilous for the market. Therefore, many countries and businesses, both friendly and unfriendly to Ukraine, both neutral and hostile, will not be interested in this.
Russia is a significant player in this market. The point here is not only that a country or many countries will not receive supplies of Russian crude oil or petroleum products. The market will be disrupted, there will be severe problems in the market, and no major player in the world will benefit from this. I'm not saying there will be a lot of pressure on Ukraine, but Ukraine will be pressured to provide some navigation rules or announce some corridors occasionally. Ukraine, for example, has taken a similar step concerning ships entering or leaving Ukrainian ports. Still, if the movement of vessels in the Black Sea is significantly disrupted, I think they will come up with a similar proposal.
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