What is being decided behind Putin's back
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin (Photo:Getty Images)
Russia, like the Titanic, set course on February 24 for its iceberg: Ukraine.
It seems to me now that on February 24, Russia repeated what happened once in Southampton, when the Titanic set off on its first and final voyage and set course for its iceberg. On February 24, Russia set course for its own iceberg: Ukraine. And if the Titanic broke into two parts (as eyewitnesses wrote), then today the question is how many parts the Russian Federation will break into.
We cannot predict this, but we must already be thinking about what will happen after this collapse.
Continuing the Titanic analogy, everything that is happening in Moscow - the talk about Prigozhin, about some sort of parallel army, about Kadyrov, about the cancellation of this big final press conference - resembles a crew which already knows that the ship is doomed, chaotically struggling to survive. But it is clear that this is not having and cannot have any effect. Therefore, let's consider this "scramble of rats” on the sinking ship that is Russia through the prism of strategic matters.
So it seems to me that we, Ukrainians, should impose a very simple idea on our Western partners today: let's think strategically, progressively, and let's rise above this petty nonsense and think about how to act further. By the way, a question for our partners in the West: why do you think that Russia should remain the same empire that it is today?
The Russian Federation is a very colorful country, like a salad of a huge number of different peoples. Why do some of these peoples have the right to their own state, and others do not? Why don't the peoples of Dagestan have the right to have their own state? Why do the Yakuts or Evenks not have this right? Unfortunately, the West does not want to pay attention to this yet. They stick to things that are necessary, but small. Undoubtedly, sanctions and restrictions on all Russia's capabilities are necessary, but we must prevent the sort of contingency in which everyone throws up their hands and says, "God, we didn't expect Russia to collapse. They did not think that everything would go so quickly. They didn't think that a civil war would start in the Russian Federation, when everyone is fighting against everyone! What will we do now?!"
It is necessary to think about different options of what will happen after Ukraine’s victory. Putin's fascist junta no longer doubts our victory.
Once, US President George Bush Sr. called upon Ukrainians to stay in this empire in Kyiv. Mrs. Margaret Thatcher called for the same. And what happened? What could they do against the objective course of history? The USSR was doomed not because someone wanted to destroy it, but because it reached the finish line of its development. We see the same thing today in the Russian Federation: it is already ending in the form in which it has existed for the past 30 years. In 1991, the collapse of the empire did not take place until the end. This process has to happen eventually. Right now, Putin has accelerated the process of further disintegration of this undissolved empire.
Bush Sr. in 1991 confirmed by his example that his analysts and intelligence system did not work – just as they did not work before the war, which Russia started on February 24. That is why I say that now the main task of the analysts of the civilized world should be the development of at least several options for the development of events.
The West has already sent a clear signal to those people in Putin's entourage who have lost a lot so far. But they still have some opportunities. These people would very much like to return to their wonderful lives in the West in exchange for certain concessions, and these concessions must be spelled out and dictated by the collective West to whatever remains of Russia after its defeat in this war. It seems to me that this is the most optimal option on the table today. There is no hope that Putin will back down. The Russian tsar cannot lose. This is a code written in the minds of the Russian population: if the tsar loses, then we need another tsar. The previous king is carried out feet first, or he suddenly dies for some reason. Putin understands this very well.
Therefore, he will fight to the last Russian soldier and destroy Russia to the last barrel of oil and cubic meter of gas. Therefore, those people who are still thinking about something, mainly (based on their own interests, far from Russia’s), but what can help them stay in power, continuing to rob Russia (or whatever is left of it) while living fairly well in the West, for them such a signal is quite obvious. And it seems to me that there have been negotiations going on for quite a while about how all this should end.
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