What kind of illusion Putin is creating?
The challenges of 2022 may, in truth, both destroy and help launch their own generator of actions and engines of development.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has, over the past few months, been stepping on the necks of European and U.S. leaders, and is trying to change his schwerpunkt – shifting political focus from the de-occupation of seized Ukrainian territories to the withdrawal of troops on Russian territory.
Do you see the difference? It’s clever. You can use this behavior and maneuvers for a long time, forcing the world to forget what it all began with – and what’s the point of these initial demands for the RF? Everything started, as a reminder, with aggression against a sovereign state, the violation of its territorial integrity, and has continued with the denial of the right of existence for an entire people. Do you remember the story of "one people”?
Of course, Putin isn’t asking the Ukrainians for anything at all. In his version of events, if he comes to an agreement with the Americans, the fence of the empire may simply be moved to west, and significantly expand the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republic (LDPR) enclaves created by Russia in Ukrainian territory. He moved it right under the Europeans’ noses.
If Putin does not come to an agreement with the Americans on turning Ukraine into a continuous LDPR for him, he will start a war. Or, at the very least, its these actions of preparations for war that he uses to blackmail the Western alliance.
The blackmail, admittedly, is working. The efforts of world diplomacy are now focused not so much on restoring Ukrainian territorial integrity, but above all on discussing the accumulation of Putin's troops near Ukrainian borders. World diplomacy is trying to somehow slow down the massing of these troops.
And the strategists of analytic centers are seriously busy calculating the time required to concentrate the number of divisions necessary for the invasion of Ukraine. They’re monitoring the deployment of supporting infrastructure, like field hospitals with mobile crematoriums.
Please note that all this is taking place amid the statements of the nuclear states on the inadmissibility of a nuclear war. The very fact of such an "unexpected" conclusion, which seemed to have been made even during the Cuban missile crisis, should drive a citizen of Germany, France, the Netherlands, or even the United States into a real psychological stupor in which a local war in the east of the continent – in Ukraine, with the use of "conventional" rather than nuclear weapons, may seem like a trifle that is not worthy of attention.
They say, well it’s good that the whole planet wasn’t torched. This is the background on which the talks about Ukraine take place, without Ukraine’s participation. But this sense of security is deceiving.
In the worst case scenario, if Putin decides to attack, Ukraine won’t be fighting alone, as said to the outside world, including by the Minister for Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. Do you think that the Poles, who are well aware of the cost of having their country occupied, will sit idly by? What about Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia?
These Baltic countries, although small in size, are members of NATO, whose protection is covered by Article 5 of the Washington Treaty. I am sure that Joe Biden won’t be the only one transferring weapons to Ukrainian partisans. The Poles will simply have no other choice than to support Ukraine, or the resistance movement in Ukraine.
Putin and Lukashenko gave the Poles a full display of the first stage of a border scenario, and their plans, both in relation to Poland and the entire European Union. In Warsaw, these signals were assessed, I think, correctly. Let me remind you that during World War II, the United States went through a participation stage in the war by supplying weapons and ammunition to the United Kingdom.
If war breaks out on a large scale in Ukraine, the entire continent may be drawn into World War III.
This was before the Normandy landings And not a hybrid, information, or any other sort, but a real one.
It is symptomatic that Putin does not actually communicate with the Europeans as a matter of course. Which, in my opinion, demonstrates his attitude towards them, as a bulk that can be ignored. Yes, the Russian leader may answer the phone if Macron calls him. But about Ukraine, which, let me remind you, is in Europe, he decided to speak only with the Americans. Putin is trying to create the illusion that nothing will be changed on the continent in the event of an invasion of Ukraine. We will only have to certify Nord Stream 2 at an accelerated pace. But it’s not all that simple, something will change. NATO countries will be drawn into the war.
In general, what is happening is clear. Putin is trying to take Ukraine hostage. And, holding a gun to its temple, wants to convince the rest of the world that this is the best, most profitable and safest option for the rest of the world – to accept it calmly, and not to “fidget."
Can war be avoided? I think yes. To begin with, you should re-read books on the history of World War II, how it all began, what were the preconditions and the mistakes made by politicians, in order to avoid stepping on the same rake for a third time, because three times is far too many.
And Ukrainians need to strain themselves. Before us is a whole set of reasons for rethinking our life priorities and focusing on the idea and need to create an effective state – that is, functioning institutions. The challenges of 2022 may, in truth, both destroy and help start their own generator of actions and the engine of development.
So, once again, the time comes in our story for historic decisions and actions, when the familiar, reassuring phrase that we are “moving in the right direction” is clearly not enough. After all, this movement needs to be at a certain speed – much faster than the one we’re used to.
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