This text is not to doomsay, but for us to learn to build our future – to determine our future and the future of our neighbors.
Remember these quotes?
"War is the continuation of politics by other means" (Karl von Clausewitz).
"Politics is the concentrated expression of economics" (Lenin).
So here it is. As a "paranoid" with experience, I love one more quote: "Vide quis proderit" ("Look for whom it benefits").
And the number of beneficiaries is increasing.
I will go through the main ones:
1. The United States
- Do not rush to throw stones, but look at history. Who benefited the most after World War II?
- The growth of the U.S. economy was the largest in history — 18%;
- The U.S. gained control over most of the world, loaded its economy with orders to rebuild destroyed countries, made the dollar the world currency;
- A long war today is leading to renaissance of the American military industry;
- A long war and sanctions against Russia means an increase in the share of American energy on the Euro-pean and world market;
- A long war is the final exhaustion of Russia and a way to reboot its political elites;
- A long war is a tool to eliminate an inconvenient European sub-subject;
Ukraine here, after a long war, will be completely dependent on foreign aid and will be able to join the group of countries that are in the interests of the Anglo-Saxons in their region - such as Taiwan, South Korea, Israel, and Poland – to which Ukraine can be added in Europe.
Moreover, Ukraine is also a promising European energy hub, a logistics hub that controls part of the European corridors, a participant in the world food security project, and a center of military security in Europe with a strong military-industrial complex.
In the future, Ukraine is a member of the American team that oversees the disintegration of the horde. The U.S. has already received a reanimated NATO and an increase in defense orders to rearm the world's armies.
Ukraine has become an ideal testing ground for new types of weapons, new tactical maneuvers, means of communication, and psychological operations. A quick war, unfortunately, will not allow these "bonuses" to be implemented.
China is also strategically-inclined and has implemented long projects for its own benefit. China did not helpits failed ally Russia, but China did not condemn the aggression and does not help Ukraine. China is lurking like a predator, waiting for its moment to take advantage.
A weakened Russia will sooner or later crawl to China on its knees, and Russian natural resources (critical materials, energy, black earth) and military technologies will be in the hands of China. China also needs Russia as a new military bridgehead.
The issue of the integration of the eastern part of Russia with China is a matter of time. And China is not hurrying. What's more, the Chinese military is closely monitoring the hostilities from afar, preparing for its own blitzkrieg in Taiwan.
The Germans have always openly or covertly disliked the Anglo-Saxons. Russia has always been a geopolitical and economic ally for them. It is a sales market, raw materials and an ally in the rest of the world.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine put the Germans in an awkward position. It seems that this contradicts "Euro-pean values", but what about money and world domination?
In general, the Germans found their benefits here. They are already preparing their versions of the "Marshall Plan", the implementation of which will allow them to fill the appetite of their German manufacturers.
Plus, Europe needs 14 million migrant workers, who are critically necessary to maintain the economic growth of an aging Europe. And the long war in Ukraine is, the more an ideal opportunity to fill this labor shortage appears.
And this is only a few of the reasons why it is not profitable for the Germans to give their tanks to Ukraine.I can continue the list of beneficiaries.
- Here is Turkey with its special role as a negotiator and grain trader;
- And India, which buys Russian oil at a huge discount;
- Iran, which received nuclear technology and modern aircraft;
- Venezuela, which was allowed to sell oil.
It is important to remember that war is a great tragedy for some, and new capital and opportunities for others. This text is not for to doomsay, but for us to learn to build our own future and determine it and the future of our neighbors.
Ukraine will also gain benefits.
Yes, we'll end the war and win, but we'll end up with a ruined economy, huge debts, and an equally wild neighbor across the fence. But we have a chance to become a European economic tiger – the Israel and South Korea of Europe.
But for this you need to have your own plan. It’s a long shot. Do we have it?