ISW report

Global oil surge threatens to reverse year of declining Russian energy revenues - ISW

Threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are driving a sharp spike in crude oil prices, a trend that could provide the Kremlin with the funds to stabilize its economy and sustain the war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on March 2.

3 March, 10:53 AM

Ukraine blunts Moscow’s push, undercuts claims of inevitable Russian victory

Ukraine’s recent counterattacks are undermining Moscow’s claims that a Russian battlefield victory is inevitable and that Kyiv must accept Russia’s demands before its position worsens further, the Institute for the Study of War said in its Feb. 24 report, marking four years since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

25 February, 12:04 PM

Russia shifts to sabotage and assassinations to break Ukraine

The terrorist attack in Lviv that killed a 23-year-old police officer and injured over 20 others proves Russia is escalating its sabotage campaign to destabilize Ukrainian society, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Feb. 22.

23 February, 10:53 AM

Ukraine pushes Russian forces back, no defense collapse on front predicted - ISW

Russia exaggerated its territorial gains on the front, collapse of the Ukrainian defense is not foreseen, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Feb. 15.

16 February, 10:38 AM

Russia retools Shahed drones to threaten Ukrainian interceptors - video

Russian forces are testing a new modification of Shahed drones equipped with a rear-facing air-to-air missile, a move likely aimed at countering Ukraine’s air defense, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Feb. 8.

9 February, 09:38 AM

ISW: Russia used ceasefire pause to prep massive Feb. 3 missile and drone assault

Russia’s large-scale missile and drone assault on Ukraine early on Feb. 3 shows Moscow was never serious about using a temporary halt in attacks on energy infrastructure to de-escalate the war or pursue meaningful peace talks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Jan. 3 report.

4 February, 11:23 AM

Kremlin rolls out Medvedchuk to signal rejection of peace with Ukraine — ISW

The Kremlin is using Viktor Medvedchuk, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, to publicly dismiss the prospect of peace with Ukraine and prepare Russian audiences for a prolonged war, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Jan. 18 analysis.

19 January, 11:22 AM

Russia fakes Kupyansk ‘victory’ to influence U.S. stance on peace talks — ISW

Russia’s top military officials are spreading false claims about seizing the city of Kupyansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast to create an “alternative reality” on the battlefield and pressure the United States into backing peace talks on Moscow’s terms, the Institute for the Study of War said in its Jan. 16 assessment.

17 January, 10:22 AM

Russia could be ready for war with NATO before 2029 — ISW

Russia could pose a direct military threat to NATO earlier than 2029, particularly if a ceasefire in Ukraine allows Moscow to rearm and rebuild its forces, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Jan. 6.

7 January, 12:27 PM

Russia speeds up advances in 2025, but pays brutal price — ISW

Russia pushed forward at a faster pace in 2025, but the gains came with heavy losses and no strategic payoff, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Dec. 31.

1 January, 01:07 PM

Russia expands year-round conscription, moves to call up more reservists — ISW analysis

Russia is stepping up forced mobilization of reservists to make up for its disproportionately high losses in Ukraine relative to territorial gains, according to a Dec. 30 report from the Institute for the Study of War.

31 December 2025, 11:29 AM

Valdai ‘strike’ exists only in Kremlin statements — ISW

There is no evidence to support Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s claim that Ukraine carried out a strike on Russian dictator Vladimir Putin residence in Valdai, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Dec. 29.

30 December 2025, 12:35 PM

ISW: Russia must drop demands that clash with U.S.–Ukraine peace plan

The Kremlin will have to compromise on demands that contradict the 20-point peace plan proposed by the United States and Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Dec. 24 report.

25 December 2025, 05:00 PM

Russia captures Siversk after months of assault

Russian forces have likely captured Siversk in Donetsk Oblast, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), citing Ukrainian military analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets, reported on Dec. 21.

22 December 2025, 11:10 AM

Ukrainian gains near Kupyansk debunk Kremlin narrative of ‘inevitable victory’ — ISW

Ukrainian advances in and around Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast demonstrate that Ukraine’s Armed Forces remain capable of mounting successful counterattacks and achieving tactically significant gains, especially when Russian forces are overstretched, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Dec. 12 assessment.

13 December 2025, 10:48 AM

Moscow declares Siversk captured to sell its 'sweeping advances' narrative

Russia’s claim to have captured Siversk isn’t backed by evidence and is part of a wider Kremlin effort to sell the illusion of a collapsing Ukrainian front, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Dec. 11.

12 December 2025, 12:39 PM

ISW: Kremlin rejects security guarantees, free elections, and Ukraine’s energy truce plan

Russia continues to signal it has no interest in easing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, agreeing to peace terms that include real security guarantees, or allowing free elections unless it can ensure a pro-Russian outcome, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in their Dec. 10 report.

11 December 2025, 10:32 AM

ISW: Putin doubles down on 2022 invasion goals, rejects U.S. peace proposal

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his commitment to the original goals of his 2021–2022 invasion of Ukraine and showed no interest in compromise during a recent interview with Indian media, according to a new assessment from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) published on Dec. 4.

5 December 2025, 11:44 AM

Russia pushes false narrative of looming attack on Chernihiv — ISW

Russia has likely launched a new cognitive warfare campaign by spreading information about an alleged offensive on the city of Chernihiv, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Dec. 4.

5 December 2025, 10:08 AM

ISW: Kremlin fakes Ukraine defeat to push West into peace on Russia’s terms

Russian state-run propaganda outlets are spreading false claims of an imminent collapse along Ukraine’s front line, citing recent remarks by Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, according to the Institute for the Study of War’s latest report, published on Nov. 29.

30 November 2025, 01:00 PM

ISW report

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