ISW Ukraine report

Ukraine seizes back initiative near Lyman, disrupts Russia’s Donbas plans

Ukraine’s Defense Forces have successfully regained the initiative on both the strategic and operational levels for the first time since the Kursk operation, eliminating a Russian salient north of Lyman and disrupting Moscow’s plans to encircle key cities in Donetsk Oblast, according to a Sept. 12 analysis by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War.

13 September, 10:53 PM

Russia planning major strikes on Kyiv energy grid ahead of winter

Russia is preparing to launch a large-scale campaign of strikes against Kyiv's energy infrastructure in the coming weeks, according to an Aug. 8 report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

9 August, 03:30 PM

Ukraine seizes tactical initiative as Russian losses mount — ISW

Ukrainian Defense Forces are regaining the tactical initiative across various frontline sectors following a series of counteroffensives and mounting Russian troop losses, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on May 20.

21 May, 08:51 AM

Russia not ready for meaningful concessions in Ukraine war

The Kremlin remains committed to its original goals in the war against Ukraine, is not ready for substantial compromises, and continues to demand recognition of occupied territories along with “protection” of the Russian language and Russian Orthodox Church, according to a report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War published on Jan. 22.

22 January, 11:05 AM

Russia struggles to build reserves amid heavy Ukraine losses

Russian forces are likely unable to simultaneously rebuild strategic reserves and offset massive losses in Ukraine, losing the equivalent of a division every 10 days in 2025, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in its Jan. 7 assessment.

8 January, 01:06 PM

Russian cross-border raids in northern regions meant as propaganda ploy

The villages of Hrabovske in Sumy Oblast and Sotnytskyi Kozachok in Kharkiv Oblast became new targets of Russian attacks on previously quiet border sections between Ukraine and Russia, but this is unlikely to indicate Russia's deployment of a large ground offensive in northern Ukraine for now, according to the latest report from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War on Dec. 21.

22 December 2025, 01:14 PM

Unauthorized edit to Ukraine frontline map triggers massive betting payout

An unauthorized edit to a widely used interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine briefly showed Russian forces capturing a key point in the Donbas city of Myrnohrad, allowing a related bet on the prediction market platform Polymarket to resolve in favor of winners who stood to gain massive returns, 404 Media reported on Dec. 1.

14 December 2025, 01:23 PM

Russia targets Pechenihy Reservoir Dam in Kharkiv Oblast to disrupt Ukraine logistics

Russia's strike on the Pechenihy Reservoir Dam is another step in a deliberate campaign targeting Ukrainian logistics, now focused on Kharkiv Oblast, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in its Dec. 7 report.

8 December 2025, 01:53 PM

Kremlin pushes false narrative of Ukraine's collapse to force surrender

Russian officials are amplifying a baseless narrative that Ukraine's political stability and front lines are on the brink of collapse, aiming to pressure the West into capitulation on Moscow's terms that Russia cannot achieve militarily, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War warned in its latest report on Nov. 30.

1 December 2025, 12:08 PM

Russian forces pushing toward Pokrovsk encirclement as Ukrainian troops hold limited presence

Ukrainian troops maintain a limited presence in and around Pokrovsk and continue counterattacks as Russians seek to seal off the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad "pocket," the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in a Nov. 23 assessment.

24 November 2025, 01:17 PM

Russian officials reject U.S. peace plan, stick to war aims

Russian officials' responses to the reported 28-point U.S. peace plan for Ukraine reveal Moscow's unwavering commitment to its original war aims and attempts to shift blame for stalled negotiations onto Kyiv, according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War's Nov. 20 report.

21 November 2025, 12:25 PM

Russian gains in Pokrovsk after 21 months may not repeat on other fronts

Current Russian advances in Pokrovsk represent the culmination of a 21-month campaign to capture the city — that is how long it took the aggressor to advance 39 kilometers from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk, analysts from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War conclude in their Nov. 4 report.

5 November 2025, 12:55 PM

Russian forces intensify offensive operations near Pokrovsk

Russian forces have ramped up assault operations near Pokrovsk and its outskirts, aiming to fully capture the city. Geolocated footage released on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 shows that the Russians recently advanced in the central and southeastern parts of Pokrovsk, according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War's (ISW) latest assessment for Nov. 1.

2 November 2025, 03:19 PM

Analysts debunk Russian claims of Kherson bridgehead

The Kremlin is falsely portraying Russian forces as having established a bridgehead on the right (west) bank of Kherson Oblast in a new bid to wage cognitive warfare against Ukraine and its partners, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its Oct. 23 report.

24 October 2025, 01:34 PM

Kremlin signals no compromise short of Ukraine capitulation

The Kremlin shows no signs of accepting anything less than Ukraine's capitulation to all its military demands, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in its Oct. 20 report.

21 October 2025, 11:55 AM

Ceding Donbas to Russia would bolster its offensive position — ISW analysis

Russia’s demand for full control of the Donbas would give Moscow a stronger foothold for renewed aggression against Ukraine whenever it sees fit, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in their Oct. 19 assessment.

20 October 2025, 10:26 AM

Ukraine makes gains in Sumy as Russia escalates near Kupyansk and Kherson, ISW says

Russian forces continue their offensive near Kupyansk and are stepping up efforts on the Pokrovsk front, while Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in northern parts of Sumy Oblast, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in a new report.

21 September 2025, 10:16 AM

Putin blocks peace talks, threatens potential Western peacekeepers

Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to derail peace negotiations with Ukraine by spreading falsehoods about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “illegitimacy” and blaming Kyiv for the lack of progress, according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report on Sept. 5.

6 September 2025, 03:33 PM

Putin signals limited flexibility — just enough to keep Trump watching

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin attempts to appear open to some concessions to the U.S., but continues to reject core requirements and shifts the blame for Russian aggression onto the West, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote on Sept. 2.

3 September 2025, 01:15 PM

Kremlin inflates military gains to convince West of 'inevitable victory' over Ukraine

The Russian military leadership systematically publishes false data about its battlefield successes, creating an illusion of rapid advances and an “inevitable victory” over Ukraine, according to an Aug. 30 report by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

31 August 2025, 02:16 PM

ISW Ukraine report

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