Intelligence data indicated that in 2024 the net profit of Russian banks fell by 8% year-on-year to about $45 billion. Return on equity declined to 18%.
The intelligence service noted that the deterioration in financial performance took place amid a sharp increase in loan-loss provisions and higher funding costs caused by tight monetary policy. These factors, analysts said, point not to a cyclical slowdown but to the onset of a deeper, systemic dysfunction in the banking sector.
Credit quality is also worsening. The share of non-performing loans has reached 11%, and 12% in the unsecured lending segment. These default levels contradict official claims of stability and indicate systemic problems that can no longer be explained by isolated segments or temporary shocks.
The onset of a systemic banking crisis is effectively acknowledged even by analysts at the Kremlin-linked Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting. They concluded that the current appearance of stability is not based on genuine recovery but on the dominance of state-owned banks, large-scale restructurings of bad assets, and regulatory easing.
Ukrainian intelligence said this model merely delays the crisis while increasing the risk of a rapid and large-scale deposit outflow should conditions worsen. The declared resilience of Russia’s banking system is artificial, and the Central Bank of Russia has effectively shifted to manual risk management, allowing toxic loans to be concealed through formal restructurings.
“Under these conditions, official statistics only mask the real scale of losses," the agency said.
"Banking sector will inevitably require additional state support, increasing fiscal and macroeconomic pressure on Russia’s economy and locking the crisis in as a long-term factor.”
In June 2025, Bloomberg, citing expert assessments, reported that Russia’s banking system could face collapse within a year, with the probability of a systemic breakdown already being projected as early as April 2026.