The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus said this in an appeal published on June 22.
In their report, cabinet representatives identified eight
main signs that Lukashenko’s regime is actively preparing to enter the war
directly.
They listed them as follows:
- Legalizing “preemptive strikes.” Lukashenko’s regime has
made key changes to military legislation, including amendments to the country’s
constitution that ended Belarus’ status as a neutral and nonnuclear state. A
new military doctrine adopted in 2024 officially allows preemptive strikes in
the event of an “immediate threat” — which can be interpreted as a
concentration of troops near the border or other threats to national security —
and permits the Belarusian army to be deployed abroad.
- Large-scale force deployment. The number of contract
soldiers has increased 1.5 times since 2022, while the mobilization reserve is
estimated at 289,000 people. A Southern Operational Command is being created in
the Ukrainian sector, with total troop strength potentially rising above
80,000. A “people’s militia” of up to 150,000 is also being formed. Belarus is
actively adopting Russia’s practices, including draft notices by SMS and
allowing prisoners to be conscripted into the army.
- Putting the economy on a war footing. Defense spending has
increased fivefold over four years. Belarus’ defense industry is now fully
integrated with Russia’s, and a regime of total secrecy has been introduced. In
2024 alone, more than 4,000 new pieces of military equipment were accepted into
service.
- Nuclear weapons and the Wagner PMC. Integration with the
Russian army has reached its peak, with Russian occupying forces permanently
stationed in Belarus, tactical nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile system
deployed there. Belarusian soldiers and officers are also being trained by
Wagner PMC instructors.
- The “Khrenin line” and the militarization of children.
Defense lines are being built along the borders with Ukraine, Poland and
Lithuania. Infrastructure, including bridges and airfields, is being upgraded
to move heavy Russian equipment. Mandatory military training has been
introduced in schools, and tens of thousands of children are required to attend
special military-patriotic camps.
- Mobilizing health care and the civilian sector. Belarus’
Health Ministry has approved instructions for strict wartime triage of the
wounded. Minsk has inspected 5,000 bomb shelters, regularly tests alert systems
and is buying body armor at the district level for militia needs.
- Stockpiling strategic resources. Mandatory reserves of
petroleum products have been doubled to 30 days of storage. Belarus’ Defense
Ministry has expanded the list of civilian equipment that can be mobilized
under martial law. Under government resolution No. 249, dated May 15, 2026,
civilian vehicles belonging to businesses can be forcibly combined into
military motor convoys.
- Constant military drills. In 2026, the regime has continued
large-scale, nonstop military exercises. The opposition said the drills are
used to quietly check mobilization lists and keep psychological pressure high
in society.
Background: The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus is
the main executive body of Belarus’ democratic opposition. It was created on
Aug. 9, 2022, by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The cabinet’s main
goal is to protect Belarus’ independence, restore constitutional order and
prepare the country for democratic elections.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at a joint news
conference with Honduran President Nasry Asfura in Kyiv on June 19 that
dictator Alexander Lukashenko could dismantle repeaters that help guide Russian
drone attacks on Ukraine within a week.
“I think a week would be enough for him to do it. Why do I
say ‘a week’? Because our civilians are dying every day because of this,
children are being wounded. If he does not do it, we will,” Zelenskyy said.
He added that Russia is still trying to drag Belarus into
the war, while Lukashenko “understands that Ukraine will respond.”
Zelenskyy said in his evening video address on June 20 that
Kyiv knows about industrial facilities in Belarus that help the Russian army.
He repeated his warning that Belarus has one week to
dismantle the equipment.
In an interview with TSN that aired on June 21, Zelenskyy
said his public demand that Belarus dismantle the repeaters helping guide
Russian drone attacks on Ukraine was the final step after lengthy private
warnings.