A large and strong neighbor has the right to limit the sovereignty of a smaller one, to interfere in its foreign and even domestic policies.

Last week was exceptionally successful for Ukraine. I consider dates 15, 16, 17 to be turning points in the Russian-Ukrainian war. But what should we expect next?

Putin’s speech announcing the start of hostilities, shortly after the bombing of Ukrainian cities including the capital and an offensive of large groups of Russian troops along the northern, eastern and southern borders was on Feb. 24 2022.

When Putin started the war, he tried to shift the blame to NATO, calling it the instigator. He argued that Russia had no choice but to defensively launch the war to prevent NATO from surrounding Russia from all sides. A few days ago, Putin finally lifted his veil of pretense: this is a war of conquest.

For obvious reasons all the focus has been on Ukraine but risks seem to be building around its borders - and unsure here whether this is because of Russia. The cynic in me talking here but there is rarely smoke without Russian fire in the region.