According to intelligence assessments, Tehran currently retains about three-quarters of the weapons stockpile it had before the war and is capable of rapidly replenishing its arsenal if necessary. The inventory may also include Russian missiles produced over the past year.
In March, Iran still possessed about 60% of its prewar missile arsenal despite extensive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes aimed at degrading its long-range strike capabilities, the intelligence assessment said. Between Feb. 28 and April 8, when a ceasefire took effect, Iran launched more than 1,850 missiles at targets across the region, as well as at least twice as many cruise missiles and Shahed drones.
During the first month of the war, the United States and Israel said they had destroyed about two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed in mid-March that Tehran's offensive capabilities had been reduced by 90%.
At the same time, a significant portion of Iran's ballistic missiles and launch systems remained in underground facilities whose entrances had been blocked by debris following the strikes. Bloomberg reported that Iran regained access to those sites during the ceasefire, allowing it to regroup and replenish its weapons stockpiles.
According to a source familiar with the matter, Iran can continue producing new Shahed drones as long as it has access to fiberglass, explosives, guidance systems and engines, although obtaining some components — particularly explosives — has become more difficult after months of bombardment.
Kelly Grieco, an expert at the Stimson Center, said Iran's industrial base remains capable of producing new drone models without major difficulties even during wartime. She added that Iran's retention of a substantial portion of its prewar missile arsenal complicates Washington's decision-making on whether to resume large-scale attacks.
"Despite all the tactical successes claimed by the United States, it has not achieved its objectives of paralyzing Iran's defense industrial base or significantly weakening Iran's missile program. Iran has demonstrated remarkable resilience and the ability to rebuild its missile arsenal," Becca Wasser, head of defense at Bloomberg Economics, said.
War with Iran: Latest developments
On June 11, U.S. President Donald Trump announced what he described as a "great deal" that could bring the war with Iran to an end, saying it was expected to be signed within days. He said the signing ceremony would likely take place in Europe with the participation of Vice President JD Vance.
Iran's state news agency IRNA later reported that Tehran would not relinquish control of the Strait of Hormuz and that the United States would not take part in its future operation.
Early on June 11, the United States launched a new wave of strikes against Iran and prepared for further bombardments. According to U.S. Central Command, American forces targeted facilities linked to Iran's air defense, communications and military surveillance systems.
In turn, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had fired 12 ballistic missiles at the location of U.S. F-35, F-15 and F-16 fighter jets in Jordan.
Despite the escalation, Trump said Washington still hoped to reach an agreement with Iran.