British ‘Mega-Survey’ predicts Kamala Harris victory in U.S. elections

The publication notes that Focaldata surveyed over 31,000 voters in the United States over the past month for an innovative type of survey called MRP.

The polling firm believes Harris is likely to win in Michigan by nearly 5 points, Nevada by approximately 2 points, and with a slight edge in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Analysts at Focaldata suggest that Trump will defeat Harris in Georgia and North Carolina. In Arizona, the data from online polling and MRP modeling diverge.

Harris’s advantage is partly attributed to her popularity among older white women, who have historically leaned conservative. At the same time, Trump has gained support among young Black and Hispanic men.

James Kanagasuriyam, the chief scientist at Focaldata, stated that the MRP model showed Trump leading throughout the campaign, and only after the last update did this change.

The “mega-survey” method emerged in the UK in 2017. It correctly predicted that Prime Minister Theresa May would lose her majority in Parliament, despite most polls suggesting she would win.

Proponents of the method argue it is likely to be even more effective in the U.S.

Results from other U.S. presidential polls

Earlier reports indicated that according to a Times/YouGov poll, Kamala Harris narrowly leads her Republican opponent Donald Trump in four “battleground” states.

The survey, conducted among registered voters and Americans who have already voted, shows Harris leading in Wisconsin (by 4%), Pennsylvania (by 3%), Michigan (by 3%), and Nevada (by 1%). At the same time, Trump leads in North Carolina and Georgia by 1%. In Arizona, both candidates have equal levels of support.

Additionally, results from a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31 indicate that Kamala Harris is ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa by three percentage points (47% to 44%).