Crimea’s isolation could sap Russia’s ability to keep fighting in Ukraine

Systematic Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics and infrastructure sites in Crimea have turned the peninsula from what Moscow once cast as the “jewel of the empire” and Putin’s “historic achievement” into a strategic burden.

Intensified Ukrainian attacks have triggered a fuel and energy crisis and severely disrupted Crimea’s supply routes, causing transport chaos at the start of the tourist season. The crisis prompted occupation authorities to declare a state of emergency in Crimea on June 26.

The renewed escalation in Crimea, a peninsula of enormous personal and political importance to Putin, gives Ukraine additional advantages on the battlefield, the Journal reported.

“For Putin, Crimea is turning from an asset into a liability. This was his main achievement, but he is unable to control the situation. Since 2014, the Russians have turned Crimea into a giant military facility. But if a military facility is isolated, it becomes a problem,” former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrii Zahorodnyuk said.

The destabilization comes at a politically sensitive moment for Putin — months before parliamentary elections, the first Moscow will hold since the start of the full-scale war. Although the elections are expected to remain largely a formality meant to cement United Russia’s hold on power, the campaign is increasing political tension inside the country. Anger over fuel shortages is growing, the report said.

People familiar with the situation said Russian generals have given Putin overly optimistic assessments of the battlefield over the past year, influencing the dictator’s decision to continue the war. Ukraine’s ability to isolate Crimea with new drone technology, however, has come as a strategic surprise, the Journal reported.

“The Russians did not expect Crimea’s vulnerability to become the main topic of discussion four and a half years after the start of the full-scale invasion. Crimea was the jewel among Putin’s achievements, showcasing Russia’s imperial ambitions, but Ukraine has the initiative and will continue to use it,” said Linas Kojala, executive director of the Center for Geopolitical and Security Studies in Lithuania.

Ukraine’s intensified strikes on bridges, ports and rail lines in Crimea could set the stage for offensive action. Crimea is already close to near-total isolation, said Alina Frolova, deputy head of the Center for Defense Strategies in Kyiv.

Local residents in Crimea say the situation is worsening by the day. For now, the only way to refuel a car on the peninsula is to buy gasoline from the military on the black market at sharply inflated prices.

Residents in some parts of Crimea have reported shortages of bread, sugar and other basic goods, the Journal reported. Many ATMs have run out of cash, while stores and shopping malls have either closed or limited operations.

On June 26, Crimea’s so-called head, Sergei Aksyonov, declared a state of emergency on the peninsula starting at 1 p.m. He claimed the measure was needed primarily to address economic issues.

The move followed large-scale power outages and a deepening fuel crisis in Crimea. The peninsula’s occupation authorities had reported the closure of children’s camps and a disrupted tourist season.