“Syria was and remains a very important country in which Ukraine has huge interests,” Matsarsky.
“They are connected to security, the economy and attempts to reduce Russia’s influence in the Middle East and, more broadly, in the southern part of the globe.”
Matsarsky said Russia seeks to present itself as having clients or at least highly dependent states across the Middle East and Africa. He pointed to Moscow’s Africa Corps, an official structure formed from remnants of Wagner Group units and other mercenaries. Those forces operate in Mali and the Central African Republic, he said.
The effectiveness of those formations, Matsarsky added, depends on Russia’s continued presence at its Syrian bases in Khmeimim and Tartus.
“If Ukraine can reach an agreement with Syrian authorities to halt or at least seriously restrict the operations of those two Russian bases, it will become much harder for the Russians to pretend they are not in real international isolation,” he said.
He warned that if Russian weapons, reinforcements, and ammunition stop flowing through Syria to Africa, or are reduced significantly, it could lead to the collapse or serious defeats of the Africa Corps and other Russian units operating there.
On April 5, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
made his first visit to Damascus, where he met with Syrian President Ahmed
al-Sharaa. Zelenskyy said they discussed the situation in the Middle East and
Russia’s war against Ukraine.