Estonia is raising alarms about increasing Russian provocations near the border city of Narva, including satellite signal jamming, theft of navigation buoys, propaganda efforts, and reconnaissance drone activity.
Narva, with a population of 56,000-96% of whom speak Russian — has become a focal point for the Kremlin, which claims a "special role in protecting the Russian diaspora."
"We do not intend to start World War III, but we face constant attempts to provoke actions with serious consequences," said Egert Belichev, Director General of Estonia’s Police and Border Guard Department.
A quarter of Estonia’s 1.4 million residents are ethnic Russians, most of whom hold Estonian citizenship and identify strongly with the country.
However, the Kremlin has exploited ethnic differences to justify aggression, as seen in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, raising fears of a similar tactic to seize eastern Estonia and challenge NATO.
Politico notes that Vladimir Putin suggested in 2022 that Narva historically belongs to Russia.
Narva, closer to St. Petersburg than Tallinn, has been described by Belichev as “the end of the free world.”
Estonia’s NATO allies, including 900 British troops and a multinational force stationed at Tapa Air Base, have vowed readiness to respond.
Still, limited British army resources and the lack of specific commitments for Estonia leave concerns about NATO’s capacity to counter a potential attack.
Estonia’s defense spending is among the highest in Europe, set to rise from 3.4% of GDP to 3.7% by 2025.
President Alar Karis emphasized on Dec. 24 that the spending increase is aimed at preventing war, not preparing for it.
Border security remains a priority, with efforts to monitor all 338 kilometers of Estonia's border with Russia — a challenging but critical task as Tallinn braces for potential Russian aggression.