EU planning to replace Russian gas with LNG, new pipelines, demand cuts by 2027

As an alternative to Russian gas, the EC points out that global LNG supplies will grow rapidly by 2025, while EU gas demand is expected to decline. 

"With the full implementation of the Clean Energy Transition Framework and the Affordable Energy Action Plan, the EU is expected to replace up to 100 bcm of natural gas by 2030, which means a 40-50 bcm reduction in demand by 2027," the Commission said.

“At the same time, global LNG capacity is expected to increase by about 200 bcm by 2028, which is five times more than the EU's current imports of Russian gas.”

According to this analysis, as of 2025, global LNG supplies are expected to increase significantly with 33 bcm of additional capacity in 2025, more than 50 bcm in 2026, almost 70 bcm in 2027 and 50 bcm in 2028 - a total of 200 bcm by 2028. 

"In total, between 2025 and 2030, about 270 bcm of new LNG export capacity is expected to come online from already approved projects," the document says.

“While some of these projects are unlikely to supply gas directly to Europe, they will free up supplies from other parts of the world that can then serve EU markets.”

In addition, the Neptun Deep offshore gas field in Romania is expected to produce 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year during the first 10 years of its operation from 2027. 

"In addition, starting in 2026, the capacity of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP, which delivers Azerbaijani gas to Europe through Turkiye and Greece - ed.) will be increased by 1.2 billion cubic meters, which will increase gas imports from Azerbaijan," the EC noted.

The European Commission believes that the EU's pipeline gas infrastructure for delivering LNG to consumer countries is well developed, but is assessing additional infrastructure projects to address remaining bottlenecks, increase diversification opportunities, and further strengthen security of supply in Central and Southeastern Europe.

In 2024, the EU received 52 bcm of gas (32 bcm by pipeline and 20 bcm as LNG). After the termination of transit through Ukraine from the beginning of 2025, Russian gas still accounts for 13% of the EU's energy imports: 20 bcm in the form of LNG and 16.5 bcm by pipeline.

Earlier, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said that his country would block any EU sanctions against Russia that would "harm" its national interests.

On June 16, 2025, Reuters reported that Russian gas supplies through the Turk Stream pipeline to Europe are gradually resuming as scheduled maintenance is nearing completion.

According to data from the European gas transportation group Entsog, the average supply of Russian gas through the European branch of the Turk Stream from June 1 to June 9 was about 46 million cubic meters per day.

After the Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream gas pipelines ceased deliveries and the closure of the Russian gas transportation route through Ukraine in January 2025, Gazprom has the only branch to Europe - through Turkiye with a capacity of 15.75 billion cubic meters per year.

On June 17, 2025, the European Commission officially presented a legislative proposal to stop imports of Russian gas and oil by the end of 2027.