“Russia is stuck on the Ukrainian battlefield and lashing out with massive strikes on Kyiv,” the article said.
“The growing fear in European capitals is that President Vladimir Putin will try next to reshuffle the cards by expanding the conflict to Europe.”
Several European national security officials told the paper Russia might test NATO’s cohesion by striking one of the Baltic states, Swedish, or Danish islands in the Baltic Sea, or alliance territory in the Arctic.
“The security environment in Europe has deteriorated during the last 24 months, and we see a greater inclination from the Russian side to take greater operational risks in their hybrid operations, moving up also to kinetic elements,” the WSJ quoted Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson.
“We are cognizant that we need to be focused on strengthening our ability to deter and defend against the Russians.”
Concerns in the EU intensified after Russia threatened strikes on “decision-making centers” in Latvia, which Moscow falsely accused of hosting Ukrainian drone operators. Russia’s Defense Ministry also published addresses of companies it said were working with Ukraine on drone production in eight European countries, warning of “unpredictable consequences” and a “sharp escalation.”
Deterrence has also been undermined, the Journal said, by threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from NATO and by proposed reductions in U.S. troop levels in Europe.
Senior European officials told the paper Russia could see a “favorable opportunity” in the coming 12 months if a sharp rise in oil prices sparks political turmoil in Europe and boosts far-right, pro
Intelligence and military officials from several European countries said there are currently no signs that Russia is preparing to move forces or equipment for an attack on the Baltic states or other regions beyond Ukraine. But experts warned that in the coming months Putin will face a “hard choice” because of the simple arithmetic of Russian battlefield losses in Ukraine.
“If you just mobilize for this war, then you would send a signal that you are not really winning this war,” EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, said.
“So there comes the point where they need to escalate in
order to justify the mobilization. And that’s a very dangerous point. Of
course, nobody sees in the head of Putin, but this could be the calculus to
move forward and change the linearity of this war.”