How Europe proposes to amend U.S.-backed peace plan in Ukraine’s favor

Split between the summit meeting in Angola and urgent negotiations with the United States and Ukraine in Geneva, the EU and UK eventually settled on something they view as acceptable peace terms.

Territory

The most controversial provision of the original draft stipulated that Ukraine would withdraw from the roughly 20% of Donetsk Oblast it still holds. Both Kyiv and Brussels concluded this would leave Ukraine much more vulnerable to future Russian aggression: the area is the most heavily fortified section of the frontline. Fighting there began back in 2014, and Moscow has failed to seize the entirety of Donbas since, despite clearly stating it to be a core war aim.

The European counterproposal calls for postponing any discussion of territorial concessions until a ceasefire is in effect. This clashes with the Russian demand (reflected in the original U.S.-backed plan) of getting the rest of Donetsk Oblast as a precondition for a ceasefire.

Military cuts

The 28-point draft included a clause capping the size of the Ukrainian military at 600,000 personnel, roughly half from where it is now. Although much higher than the 85,000 cap initially floated by Moscow during the Istanbul talks in early 2022, such restrictions are viewed to be paving the way for ensuring Ukraine’s defeat in another Russian invasion.

European amendments change both the figure and wording of the clause: Ukraine’s army would be capped at 800,000 troops in peacetime, meaning that under a threat of renewed enemy aggression, the government can institute martial law and call up reservists to swell the ranks of its military. While still infringing on the Ukrainian sovereignty, the provision is broadly reasonable, since Kyiv is unlikely to maintain current troop levels after hostilities end in any case.

NATO

The U.S. proposal, mirroring long-standing Russian policy goals, called for NATO to rule out accepting any new members in the future, while Ukraine would have to amend its constitution and remove pursuing NATO membership as a strategic goal. NATO integration was added to the foundational law in 2014, after Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and attempted to occupy Donbas through its proxies.

The Europeans fell back to NATO’s charter, stating that Ukrainian membership will require consensus among the Allies. Without stating so explicitly, this language effectively rules out Ukraine becoming a NATO member in the foreseeable future, given that the United States and Hungary remain categorically opposed to accepting Kyiv’s application.

Washington is currently trying to sell the Russians on a new, 19-point draft of the peace plan crafted after the Nov. 23 talks with Ukrainian and European officials in Geneva. It is unclear if Europe’s amendments made it into the latest version of the U.S.-backed plan. Without giving a clear response, by Nov. 26 the Kremlin has signaled it would reject anything that falls short of its maximalist demands, which U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff presented as the original 28-point plan in the first place.