Europe’s arms factories triple in size amid Russo-Ukrainian war

Analysis of Sentinel-1 radar satellite data, covering 150 sites across 37 companies, shows a significant surge in construction activity at European defense facilities since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Europe is shifting from peacetime “just-in-time” manufacturing to building an industrial base suited for a prolonged wartime posture.

“This is a deep and structural change that will transform the defense industry in the medium to long term,” said William Alberque, a former NATO arms control director.

“Once you’re mass-producing shells, the metals and explosives start flowing, which drops the cost and complexity of missile production.”

The EU’s ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) program has invested €500 million ($582 million) to address bottlenecks in ammunition and missile production. Companies receiving this funding have expanded more rapidly.

Of the funded sites, 20 have seen significant expansion, including new factories and roads, while 14 have expanded to a lesser extent.

EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius stated that Europe’s annual ammunition production capacity has grown from 300,000 to approximately 2 million by the end of 2025.

“Missiles are a prerequisite for NATO’s theory of victory. We cannot match Russia’s mobilization pace… To achieve deterrence, production must increase sharply,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a researcher at the University of Oslo.

German defense conglomerate Rheinmetall plans to double its production of 155-mm artillery shells at a new factory under construction in Ukraine, aiming to produce over 300,000 shells annually.