Over the previous week, futures rose by 67%, and on March 9 — by another 30% due to the escalation of the war in the Middle East, keeping the markets in suspense.
The price increase occurred on the eve of the start of the season for injecting gas into underground storage facilities. The plan for injecting gas into storage facilities in Ukraine is at least 13 billion cubic meters; at least part of these volumes will be imported due to massive Russian strikes on Ukraine's own gas production.
Vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global LNG typically passes, has practically stopped; dozens of fully loaded oil and gas tankers remain in place in the Persian Gulf.
Supply disruptions create risks of increased competition for fuel.
If gas from the Middle East does not return to the market, Europe will have to compete with buyers from Asia for a limited volume of supplies in the summer.
"If you want an extra ship with American gas in Berlin, you will have to offer a high enough price to divert it from Tokyo," Bernstein analysts warned. Several gas tankers heading to Europe already turned around to Asia last week.
So far, prices are still significantly lower than the records reached in the 2022 energy crisis, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As of March 9, futures on benchmark contracts are around 64 euros per megawatt-hour, compared to the 2022 record of over 300 euros per megawatt-hour.
On Feb. 28, 2026, Israel and the U.S. announced attacks on Iran — operations codenamed Lion's Roar (Israel) and Epic Fury (USA).
Numerous explosions rang out in Tehran and a number of other major Iranian cities. Later, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed that 86-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed as a result of an attack on his residence, which was completely destroyed. The death of the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Pakpour, was also confirmed. According to the IRNA agency, the chief security advisor to Iran's supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, was also eliminated during the attack.
In response to the attack, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel. Also, Iranian missiles and drones attacked U.S. military bases in Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. In particular, numerous explosions were reported in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh. Israel retaliated by attacking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
On March 1, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that Iran's leaders want to resume negotiations, and he agreed to this, but did not specify a timeframe. According to White House estimates, 48 leaders of the Iranian regime were eliminated as a result of Operation Epic Fury.
According to Trump, the war with Iran will last about four weeks.
Ali Larijani, the representative of the eliminated Ayatollah in Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated on March 2 that Iran will not negotiate with the USA.