Kostenko suggested that the U.S.–Israeli operation against Iran has made apparent the breakdown of the post-WWII world order and will prompt many countries to rearm.
“You can argue that even if a war against Iran doesn't drag on, it will still affect the war in Ukraine,” Kostenko said.
“Now you don't even have to declare a war. If you're strong, you can come and take what you need. I think there will be a shortage in the arms market and supplies [to Ukraine] will fall sharply because countries will start rearming.”
Kostenko said Kyiv is unlikely to benefit. He said Ukraine will still need to buy some weapons from abroad, including missiles and air-defense systems, and that prices for those items are likely to rise.
“Maybe we'll gain in some places through exports of certain weapons,” he said.
“But overall, this will be bad for everyone, and all
countries will have to develop their defense industries to meet the needs of
players who want to carry out aggressive actions and those who understand they
must defend themselves.”