Effectiveness of Graham’s sanctions bill depends entirely on Trump’s whim, expert warns

Kraiev, an expert at the Ukrainian Prism analytical center, said the bill stands a better chance of reaching a House floor vote if it has the backing of President Donald Trump. He added that Speaker Mike Johnson has shown he will not bring measures to the floor that have not been cleared with Trump.

“The House has been operating in a tightly controlled way for the past year and a half, and I think it will be the same for the next two and a half years,” Kraiev said.

“Johnson doesn’t put anything to a vote that hasn’t been preapproved by Trump.”

He cautioned that the bill’s effectiveness would depend on whether it fits into Trump’s broader priorities. The most consequential parts, Kraiev said, are the proposed tariffs and secondary sanctions aimed at countries that help Russia evade sanctions and continue to purchase its energy and raw materials.

“All of that will be implemented only if Trump finds it useful and if it aligns with his overall strategy,” Kraiev said.

“So it’s, on the one hand, good news, and on the other, bad news. Trump currently favors Ukraine, and he may use similar tools against China or India. But how long we can count on that stance is impossible to say.”