21 September, 05:29 PM
Expert: How many Russians can be mobilized, and why most won’t be combat-ready
“The figure of 300,000 can be called into question just because that while the decree contains paragraphs six and eight, paragraph seven is missing,” Kirichevsky said.
“It turns out that paragraph seven is marked for official use only. And paragraph seven spells out the real number of people who must be mobilized. ... The Russian public is still trying to understand why, if there are no losses, ... (and) the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been half defeated, why another 300,000 reservists are required.”
“And it (could) turn out that even more are needed.”
However, given the rush of Russians to leave the country, the expert doubts that it will be possible to mobilize even the officially announced number of the military.
“It is not clear whether they will be able to complete this task, that is, to recruit 300,000,” Kirichevsky said. “And it’s hard to say if that 300,000 will go to the front in an organized manner to supplement the current 200,000 occupying troops that are on the territory of Ukraine now, because it is still unclear what exactly the Russians will spend this human resource on. Perhaps they will be staffed with partially mobilized units in the Far East that were withdrawn for the war against Ukraine. Perhaps they will be staffed with troops from Syria.”
However, Kirichevskiy said that even if such a large number of Russian troops ends up in Ukraine, the soldiers will not be combat-ready, as they will have neither high-quality training nor support.
“It will not be a problem for the Russians to equip this mass of ‘cannon fodder’ with small arms,” the expert said.
“As for the more complex items, like helmets, bulletproof vests, proper first aid kits, even some drones for reconnaissance at the platoon level – they’ve already have serious problems with that. ... We can imagine a situation in which 300,000 Russian soldiers come to the front and, of course, there is no combat-ready army there. We can say that it will just be a mass that will delay the advance of our troops.”