How Russia will try to pull Belarus into its war against Ukraine — SBU major general tells NV

"I believe Russia will attempt this,” he said.

“Why wouldn't they? It's a very appealing idea. But will they succeed?", he asked.

He spoke about why Russia would consider the action.

"Russia definitely needs this. I’m 100% certain,” he said.

“Plus or minus 50,000 rifles is quite significant support. Showing that 'we are not fighting alone, our allies are fighting alongside us,' would be a crucial narrative for them. But will they actually manage to pull Belarus in? I don't know, I don't think so."

Yahun suggested that Russia might seek to manipulate the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, which is fighting on Ukraine's side:

"I think this could work on an informational level,” he said.

“Once again, Belarus might say, 'This is a provocation against us,' or 'Ukraine is trying to drag us into something.' But I don't believe Belarus is ready."

Yahun doesn't foresee this leading to the emergence of a Belarusian faction capable of crossing the border and engaging in warfare with Ukraine.

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has claimed that the country is preparing for war.

Belarus is conducting military drills in regions bordering Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland from April 2-4.

Lukashenko threatened Lithuania and Poland with an attack on the Suwałki Corridor at the end of March.

NATO considers the Suwałki Corridor is the most likely target for Russian aggression against NATO countries.

During a meeting with military personnel, Lukashenko ordered them to "not be shy" about dealing with border violators and to destroy them without hesitation.