The IMF estimates real GDP growth at 3.5% for 2024 but expects a slowdown in 2025 due to labor shortages, wrecked energy infrastructure, and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also cut its 2025 forecast for Ukraine’s economy to 3.5%, down from 4.7% projected last September.
The World Bank, in its Jan. 17 “Global Economic Prospects” report, slashed Ukraine’s 2025 GDP growth outlook to 2% from 6.5% in June, though it raised its 2026 forecast to 7% from 5.1%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) adjusted its projections too, dropping its 2025 real GDP growth estimate from 4.1% to 3.6% in late January, citing security risks and labor market woes. Ukraine’s 2025 state budget, however, is based on a 2.7% growth forecast.
On Feb. 28, 2025, Ukraine’s delegation, led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, left the White House early after a spat with U.S. President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance during a press event. No minerals deal was signed. Vance and Trump accused Zelenskyy of ingratitude toward U.S. aid; Zelenskyy insisted peace needs real security guarantees, pointing to Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s broken promises.
Trump later wrote on Truth Social that Zelenskyy “isn’t ready for peace” but “can come back when he is.”