Tehran leans into risk, turns ‘nothing to lose’ into wartime advantage

Diplomatic editor Patrick Wintour wrote that Tehran “has no qualms about escalating the war,” calling this the ayatollah regime’s “strongest weapon.” He cited an unnamed Iranian official as saying that “other cards are already ready and will come into play at the right moment.”

Wintour suggested this could signal a potential Iranian strike on desalination plants in Persian Gulf states — a “weak link” in the region’s ecosystem.

Iran’s leadership has nothing to lose and gains an asymmetric edge, Wintour wrote. Europe is already bracing for a new migration crisis — as Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported on March 19, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen urged the European Commission to examine the possibility of introducing a mechanism to close the EU’s external borders in the event of mass migration.

U.S. President Donald Trump sharply criticized European allies for refusing to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calling it “indecision” and “ingratitude.”

The Guardian outlined three possible outcomes to the war with Iran: a prolonged conflict ending in Iran’s capitulation, a unilateral declaration of victory by Donald Trump, or any agreement that ends the fighting. The newspaper noted that in the second scenario Trump could declare victory and “simply walk away,” and there have been moments when he appeared ready to take that step. However, Iran may not accept such an outcome.

“There has been a change in the regime, not a change of regime, and that change has been for the worse — toward a harder-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

A joint U.S. and Israeli operation against Iran’s regime began on Feb. 28. Airstrikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel and Persian Gulf countries. Iranian forces also targeted U.S. military bases.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the first day of the operation, called on the Iranian people to overthrow the ayatollah regime. However, on March 10, The Times of Israel reported that Israeli security services estimate the collapse of Iran’s regime could take up to one year.