ISW analyzes Putin's war stance and his willingness to negotiate with Ukraine

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have outlined key conclusions from Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s remarks during his Dec. 19 Q&A session.

Putin suggested he should have launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine earlier and reiterated that any negotiations must be based on demands made before the invasion or during Russia’s peak territorial control.

ISW analysts believe Putin’s insistence on Ukraine’s surrender reflects his confidence that Russia can outlast Ukrainian and Western resolve.

They assess that Putin is unlikely to accept a lesser deal unless Ukraine inflicts further significant defeats on Russian forces.

During the session, Putin falsely claimed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidency is illegitimate, attempting to justify delays in negotiations and bolster domestic support for Ukraine’s surrender as Russians grow increasingly weary of the war.

ISW also noted Putin’s continued focus on the offensive in Donetsk Oblast while deflecting attention from the use of North Korean troops.

Analysts highlighted his promotion of the Oreshnik missile, claiming it as part of a non-nuclear deterrent aimed at pressuring the West.

Despite Putin’s boasting about the missile’s capabilities, ISW views this as an attempt to distract from Russia’s battlefield failures and eroding nuclear rhetoric.

Putin downplayed Russia’s economic struggles, blaming the Central Bank for issues, and shifted responsibility for delayed payments to soldiers in Kursk Oblast to the Defense Ministry, framing Ukraine’s actions there as a "counter-terrorist operation."

In Mariupol, Putin urged occupation officials to redistribute seized Ukrainian apartments, signaling ongoing efforts to alter demographics in occupied territories by settling Russians.

ISW concludes that Putin’s strategy hinges on Russia’s ability to outlast Western support for Ukraine.

Western leaders, however, could undermine this by continuing military aid and enabling Ukrainian forces to deal decisive blows to Russian troops, forcing negotiations on favorable terms for Ukraine and its allies.