ISW: Putin frames predetermined Duma vote as referendum on Ukraine war

Putin said on Sept. 16 that participating in the State Duma elections, scheduled for Sept. 18–20, is a “duty” for all citizens and helps strengthen Russia against external forces seeking to weaken the country and undermine Russian sovereignty.

The dictator said voting is a “common contribution” to Russia’s victory in the war against Ukraine. He also said residents of territories occupied by Russia in 2022 would take part in State Duma elections for the first time.

“Putin is presenting the State Duma elections, whose results are predetermined, as a referendum on support for his war in Ukraine. The Kremlin regularly manipulates Russia’s domestic elections to achieve Putin’s goals, and Putin will present his party’s inevitable victory as evidence of broad domestic support for the war,” the analysts said.

The report said Russia’s Supreme Court disqualified the opposition Yabloko party from the State Duma elections on Aug. 11, denying Russians the opportunity to support a political party that favors a ceasefire as Putin continues to further consolidate Russia’s political system around the war.

Russian occupation authorities have taken coercive measures to secure the results sought by Putin in occupied Ukrainian territories, the analysts said. Those measures include deploying armed troops at polling stations.

United Russia leaders, including party leader Dmitry Medvedev, have reaffirmed their efforts to secure public support for the war against Ukraine by portraying the party as the “party of victory.”

The Kremlin is laying the groundwork to demand long-term sacrifices from Russian society, such as mobilization, by presenting the State Duma election results as confirmation of popular support for the war in Ukraine, ISW said. It continues to repeatedly insist, however, that mobilization is not currently planned.

On Sept. 10, Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service said Russia could stage provocations and terrorist attacks under a “false flag” in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories during the State Duma elections.

On Sept. 11, the Atesh partisan movement said Russians were carrying out widespread election fraud during so-called “early voting” in temporarily occupied territories. For example, ballots are being filled out in the names of Russian troops who have been killed or are missing.