ISW: Putin stalls talks, demands Ukraine’s surrender, prepares for long war

Citing the outcome of recent talks in Istanbul and the demands voiced by the Russian side, ISW analysts concluded that Russia’s central objective remains Ukraine’s full capitulation.

The report emphasized that Moscow does not view its territorial claims as negotiable issues for ending the war, but rather as preconditions for a temporary ceasefire.

According to ISW, the Kremlin is merely staging a pretense of interest in negotiations, issuing unacceptable ultimatums while showing no genuine willingness to compromise.

The report stated that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin likely will not agree to any concessions until Ukraine and its Western partners “change his theory of victory.” Under this vision, Moscow hopes to win a war of attrition through a “continuous creeping offensive” that prevents Ukraine from launching any large-scale, successful counteroffensives.

ISW said Russia is deliberately stalling peace talks and has no interest in honest dialogue—neither on a ceasefire nor a peace agreement. This assessment followed fresh statements by Russian political and military leaders.

Russian outlet Verstka reported that the Kremlin has ruled out the possibility of a face-to-face meeting between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, believing that Moscow’s demands are fundamentally unacceptable to Kyiv.

Sources close to Putin’s administration claim Russia has only intensified its efforts to drag out the peace process, continuing to push ultimatum-style demands that Ukraine cannot accept.

Russia’s insistence on negotiations without international mediation could signal an attempt by the Kremlin to control the narrative and set the terms unilaterally—while limiting the influence of Ukraine’s Western allies, particularly the United States, ISW wrote.

Analysts noted that this posture aligns with ISW’s earlier assessments: that Moscow is intentionally prolonging the negotiation process to squeeze additional concessions from the West, all while maintaining military pressure on the battlefield. In contrast, ISW said Ukraine has repeatedly shown a willingness to compromise and engage in good-faith talks.

At the same time, Kremlin officials continue to signal that Russia is prepared to prolong—or even escalate—the war if Kyiv and the West reject its demands for surrender.

On May 17, Russian Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry Medvedev wrote on X that “all enemies of Russia” proposing peace terms should remember that “not all peace talks end in a ceasefire,” and that a breakdown in negotiations could lead to “a more terrifying phase of the war, with new weapons and new participants.”

ISW interpreted Medvedev’s comments as a veiled threat involving possible use of nuclear weapons, the entry of Russia’s allies into the war, or even strikes on European countries.

However, ISW added that, for now, the likelihood of nuclear escalation or direct attacks on NATO states remains low.

Russia has made it clear it will accept no terms short of Ukraine’s full capitulation—and is likely to consider any other negotiations a failure, ISW wrote, citing recent remarks by Russian officials.

On May 16, Putin aide Vladimir Medinsky said Russia is ready to fight “as long as it takes” if it does not get what it wants. ISW called such statements—alongside Medvedev’s threats—part of a coordinated Kremlin information campaign aimed at pressuring Ukraine and its Western allies into accepting Russian terms for ending the war.

ISW also believes Russia is deliberately undermining the legitimacy of Ukraine’s current government, laying the groundwork to invalidate any future peace agreements.

The report recalled Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s statement on May 17, in which he stressed the need to “know exactly” which Ukrainian representatives would sign any potential peace deal.

ISW said such remarks are part of a long-running Kremlin information campaign designed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of Zelenskyy’s presidency and the Ukrainian government since 2014.

“This rhetorical campaign is part of the Kremlin’s effort to lay the foundation for unilaterally withdrawing from any future peace agreements at a convenient time,” ISW wrote, “and to reinforce Russia’s repeated demand to force regime change in Ukraine and install a pro-Russian government.”

The Institute also emphasized that any future peace agreement must include clear recognition from Russia of the legitimacy of Ukraine’s government and its Constitution.