Geolocated footage published on May 16 confirms that Russian forces have recently captured Myrolyubivka and Mykhailivka, east of Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast. Russian military sources also claim to have advanced beyond Myrolyubivka and Hrodivka. Meanwhile, Ukrainian analysts report that the Defense Forces are still holding positions in Yelizavetivka, complicating Russian efforts to push toward Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests Ukraine may have launched a counteroffensive in this area.
ISW notes that Russian forces have intensified offensive operations northeast and east of Pokrovsk after temporarily shifting their focus to Kostiantynivka earlier in 2024. Recent redeployments from the Kurakhove direction and the appointment of General Valery Solodchuk as commander of Russia’s Central Military District indicate renewed emphasis on the Pokrovsk axis. Solodchuk previously led forces in the Kursk region, from which additional Russian units may now be transferred.
ISW assesses that Russian forces may attempt to encircle Pokrovsk rather than engage in urban combat. However, Russia may shift its priority to Kostiantynivka this summer, as its troops have recently stepped up operations in the Toretsk area and advanced in Novoolenivka and Zory. Ukrainian forces may be forced to withdraw from some positions to avoid encirclement.
Russia has reportedly reinforced this front by transferring troops from Zaporizhzhya Oblast and unmanned units from Kursk Oblast. The Kremlin may also aim to advance along the Donetsk–Kostiantynivka route toward Oleksandro-Kalynove in the coming weeks.
Still, ISW assesses that Russia is unlikely to have the resources to sustain simultaneous offensives near both Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. The report notes that Russian offensives southwest of Toretsk support both axes, but that the military command will likely need to prioritize due to limitations in manpower and materiel.
ISW concludes that Russia has not established a sufficient operational reserve to sustain multiple large-scale offensives in Ukraine at this stage of the war.