The day before, Russian forces for the first time since the start of the war carried out an artillery strike on the outskirts of Kramatorsk — the settlement of Bilenke, located about 14 kilometers (9 miles) from the front line. It lies northeast of Kramatorsk, which the Institute for the Study of War describes as the northern anchor of the so-called fortress belt that forms the backbone of Ukraine’s defenses in Donetsk Oblast.
Analysts view the shelling of Bilenke as the start of Russia’s artillery preparation for a spring-summer offensive. The invaders are likely to begin the ground phase of the offensive in the near future, the institute said.
Russian forces are also conducting a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against the southern edge of the fortress belt. This involves the use of drones to strike targets in the operational rear of the front — roughly 20 to 100 kilometers (12 to 62 miles) from the line of contact.
In particular, ISW geolocated footage of a Russian strike on a civilian cyclist on the H-20 highway between Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk, as well as strikes on Ukrainian troops in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, on the southern edge of the fortress belt. The H-20 highway is the main ground line of communication (GLOC) linking the Donbas fortress cities.
Russian forces have been conducting a BAI campaign for several months as part of a broader effort to degrade Ukraine’s defensive capabilities ahead of ground offensives, ISW analysts said.
Ukrainian military officials have also confirmed that Russian military command is sending reinforcements to the Sloviansk area to prioritize an offensive against the fortress cities of Donetsk Oblast in the near future.
“A Russian ground offensive operation aimed at seizing the fortress belt will likely be a multi-year effort that will cost the Russian military command significant time, manpower and resources,” ISW said.
So far, the invaders have “been unable or unwilling” to concentrate the resources needed for a “decisive offensive operation,” particularly against the fortress cities in the east, the institute concluded.
On Feb. 18, The New York Times, citing military officials and Western intelligence, reported that Vladimir Putin is prepared to continue the war against Ukraine for another two years in order to gain full control of the Donbas.
On Feb. 24, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa said Russia wants to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast by late March or early April.