"ISW continues to assess that Vladimir Putin is using large-scale strikes against Kyiv in an effort to break Ukraine's will to fight while concealing his own weakness, including his inability to protect Russian territory, particularly the Russian capital of Moscow, from Ukraine's long-range strikes," the institute said.
The analysts also said Russia continues to adapt its strike tactics to maximize damage to Ukraine. ISW highlighted comments by Yurii Ihnat, head of communications for the Ukrainian Air Force Command, who said Russian drones and missiles attacked from multiple directions, while Russian forces flew guided drones at lower altitudes and employed high-speed jet-powered drones, making them more difficult to intercept.
ISW further noted that Russian strikes on the evening of June 14 and overnight into June 15 caused significant damage to cultural landmarks in Kyiv, Dnipro and Kharkiv, including the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra and the Dovzhenko Film Studio in Kyiv, the House of Organ and Chamber Music in Dnipro, and the Kharkiv Art Museum.
At the same time, ISW said Russian information space actors have sought to shift blame for the consequences of the June 15 attack onto Ukraine itself. Russian propagandists have accused Ukraine of causing damage to some of the sites or justified the strikes as a matter of "military necessity." ISW recalled that Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation warned that Russia had launched a large-scale disinformation campaign aimed at justifying the strikes on Kyiv's cultural landmarks by claiming they were legitimate military targets or that Ukraine itself was responsible for the damage.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, in particular, claimed that the West had fabricated reports that Russia had struck the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra and repeated the Russian Defense Ministry's assertion that the site had been hit by a Ukrainian Patriot interceptor missile. Other Russian officials also alleged that Ukraine had staged the strike on the monastery and was blaming Russia solely to provoke a response, ISW said.
The analysts, however, pointed to Ihnat's clarification that Russia was promoting this narrative by circulating photographs of debris from a Patriot interceptor missile in Kyiv that had likely shot down a Russian Zircon missile. The Lavra itself, he said, had been struck by Shahed drones.
Overnight into June 15, Russia launched a massive attack on Kyiv. The strikes hit the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra, where a fire broke out at the Dormition Cathedral. Russian forces also struck the Oleksandr Dovzhenko Film Studio and damaged the Mystetskyi Arsenal museum complex.
The consequences of the combined attack were recorded at 50 locations across Kyiv. Authorities reported five people killed and 30 injured in the capital. Russian forces also attacked Dnipro and Kharkiv.
During the overnight assault on June 15, Russia launched 70 missiles and 611 drones of various types against Ukraine. More than 60 of the missiles were aimed at Kyiv. Ukrainian air defenses shot down five of six Zircon missiles, all 30 Iskander-K and Kh-101 cruise missiles, and 15 of 34 Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles.