Statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov indicate far broader territorial claims by Russia against Ukraine than those discussed in recent peace initiatives.
In particular, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow considers as its objectives not only the territories it already occupies, but also entire Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts.
ISW notes that at a news conference on Jan. 14, Lavrov said it would be necessary in the future to “resolve the issue of the fate of the population of Crimea, Novorossiya and Donbas.”
In particular, the foreign minister of the aggressor state said the United States allegedly understands that without this it is impossible to reach agreements, since a significant part of population of these oblasts, in his words, “does not support Kyiv regime and seeks a return to Russia.”
Analysts stress that “Novorossiya” is a fictitious construct that Russian authorities present as an alleged integral part of Russia. In the Kremlin’s interpretation, this concept includes not only annexed Crimea and four temporarily occupied oblasts, but also Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts.
At the same time, ISW emphasizes that the 28-point peace plan proposed by the United States envisaged that Crimea, all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, as well as occupied parts of the Zaporizhzhya and Kherson oblasts, would remain under Russian occupation. Under that plan, Russia would have been required to relinquish control over other seized territories, including in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
ISW said Lavrov’s reference to “Novorossiya” is not a new demand, but once again confirms that the Kremlin’s ambitions far exceed the framework laid out in the initial 28-point peace plan. Analysts also suggest that the statement may have been an attempt to shape terms favorable to Russia ahead of possible contacts between U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, U.S. President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On Jan. 14, Bloomberg reported that U.S. President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner plan to visit Moscow in the near future to meet with Putin. According to Bloomberg, U.S. officials will present the latest drafts of peace plans to the Russian leader and his team.
Axios reported that Witkoff and Kushner met on Jan. 8 in Paris with the envoy of the Russian leader, Kirill Dmitriev, to discuss the U.S. peace plan.
The meeting took place after Witkoff and Kushner held two days of talks with senior Ukrainian and European officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.