Russian troops break through Toretsk, eye open area push towards Kostyantynivka

Geolocated footage confirms that Russian troops have occupied at least 71% of Toretsk. Their offensive intensified in June 2024, with the aim of reducing the Ukrainian salient in the area and denying Ukrainian forces the ability to shell rear Russian areas in the Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk directions, both of which were Russia's main efforts at the time. In recent weeks, the enemy has made tactical gains in the northern and northwestern parts of the city.

Russian forces appear to have changed their tactics to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and make tactical gains inside the city. They are now attacking in platoons of up to 20 soldiers, compared to smaller groups of about five soldiers previously. In addition, instead of concentrating attacks in one place, they are now attacking multiple areas simultaneously. This suggests that the occupying forces are using their superior manpower to intensify their offensive operations and advance further into the city.

The ISW predicts that Russian troops will use their advances in the northwestern part of Toretsk to push further west towards Kostyantynivka, a key defense point in Donetsk Oblast. They may also intensify their offensive northwest of Toretsk and south of Chasiv Yar, potentially closing off the pocket in that area and flattening the frontline. This would complicate Ukraine's ability to counterattack and allow the Russians to deploy additional artillery systems and drones.

Russian forces could attempt to put pressure on Kostyantynivka from the south by moving west and northwest of New York and Leonidivka. They may also use mechanized assaults in the fields and small settlements surrounding Toretsk.

The enemy is likely trying to break out of the urban environment of Toretsk, and push into the more open rural areas. If it succeed, this could pose a threat to Ukrainian positions in Kostyantynivka within the next few months. However, limited access to reserves may hinder Russian forces ability to make rapid advances.