Ukraine may lose critical Donbas defense line if territories are surrendered — ISW report

Analysts reviewed media reports about possible demands by dictator Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire in Ukraine, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian Armed Forces from Donbas. ISW writes that in eastern Ukraine there is a so-called “fortress belt” which has been the main obstacle to Kremlin’s territorial ambitions in Ukraine for the past 11 years.

It consists of four large cities and several towns and settlements stretching north to south along the H-20 highway from Kostiantynivka to Sloviansk, spanning 50 kilometers. Sloviansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half of the belt and serve as important logistical centers for Ukrainian forces. Druzhkivka, Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka make up the southern half of the fortress belt.

Ukrainian troops first began building defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-Russian separatists in April 2014. Over the last 11 years, Ukraine has invested in strengthening the fortress belt. Russia’s failures to capture Sloviansk in 2022 and the current futile attempts by the occupiers highlight its effectiveness, ISW notes.

Currently, Russian forces are still trying to encircle the “fortress belt” from the southwest, but its full capture could take several years and involve heavy losses. Therefore, Putin demands Ukraine concede this critically important defensive position in Donbas, as Russian troops currently lack the capability to capture it quickly.

Meeting this demand would allow Kremlin forces to advance to the borders of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, where such defenses as in Donetsk do not exist. ISW points out that Ukraine would urgently need to build massive defensive fortifications along the border of Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, an area less suitable for a defensive line. This would require substantial investments.

Meanwhile, Russian invaders would move 82 kilometers westward, gaining a more advantageous position for a future offensive on Kharkiv or Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. ISW continues to believe that the occupiers will almost certainly violate any future ceasefire agreement and resume the war against Ukraine if the peace deal does not include reliable monitoring mechanisms and security guarantees for Kyiv.

On Aug. 8, Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that Putin demands Kyiv hand over all of Donbas and Crimea to the Kremlin. The U.S. is currently trying to obtain agreement from Ukraine and its European allies on these demands ahead of the dictator’s meeting with Donald Trump, scheduled for Aug. 15 in Alaska.

The Wall Street Journal also reported that Putin proposes to end hostilities in Ukraine in exchange for ceding Donbas territory to him.

Trump officially confirmed that his plan to settle the war in Ukraine involves territorial exchanges, whereby Kyiv would regain some lands but be forced to relinquish others.