Ukraine counterattacks force Russia to redeploy forces and use reserves — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) had previously observed indications that Russian forces redeployed units of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 55th Naval Infantry Division (both part of Russia’s Pacific Fleet) from the tactical area near Dobropillia to the Huliaipole direction as of late February 2026. Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets has now reported that Russian forces have also redeployed units of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 120th Naval Infantry Division to the Oleksandrivka direction.

ISW also assesses that Russian forces may have already committed some units from their operational reserves to counter Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka direction. Analysts noted reports by Russian military bloggers mentioning drone operators from the Russian 656th Motorized Rifle Regiment operating in the area, although there had been no data on its involvement in combat since August 2025. ISW therefore suggests the unit may have been withdrawn from the battlefield and held in reserve for future offensive operations.

Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast will likely continue to force Russian forces to choose between defending against these counterattacks and allocating manpower and resources for offensive operations elsewhere along the front, ISW said. This constraint could disrupt Russia’s plans for a potential spring-summer offensive in 2026, analysts added.

They also noted that Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are likely currently slowing Russian offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction and could soon threaten Russian offensives in the Huliaipole direction as well.