ISW: Russia’s ‘peace talks' bait eyes U.S. concessions, hides plan for future war

Russian troops are located directly across the Dnipro River from the city of Kherson, about 25 kilometers from Zaporizhzhya, and 20 kilometers from Kharkiv. Recently, Russia has significantly increased the use of armored vehicles on the frontline and appears to have begun its long-planned attempt to capture Ukraine's “belt of fortresses” in Donetsk Oblast.

This is apparently part of Russia's efforts to seize as much territory as possible in eastern and southern Ukraine, particularly in the four regions that Russia illegally claimed after sham “referendums.”

The Kremlin may “tactically and temporarily” stop insisting on Putin's demands for full control over the Ukrainian-controlled areas of the four illegally annexed oblasts in order to extract other concessions from the United States under the guise of “negotiations.” Such concessions could include Moscow's “other demands,” including the installation of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv and a sharp reduction of the Ukrainian army in order to reduce Ukrainian resistance. 

The Kremlin is likely to exploit any ceasefire based on restrictions on U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine to prepare for renewed aggression.

In a recent article in The Moscow Times, five current Russian government officials close to the Kremlin said that Russia is trying to use economic incentives to

 "hold...Trump's attention" to sway US-Russian talks on Ukraine, as Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not sincerely interested in U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to end the war.

A current Russian government official said that Russian authorities are working "in full swing" to prepare proposals for Trump across "key economic sectors." One source who has participated in the Kremlin discussions on the matter stated that Russia "needs to milk Trump as much as possible, dangling the possibility of a ceasefire like a carrot before him."

On April 20, The Wall Street Journal wrote that Ukraine is under U.S. pressure to accept President Donald Trump’s administration plan to end the war, which includes recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, blocking Ukraine's accession to NATO, the possibility of establishing a neutral zone under U.S. control around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant (ZNPP), and freezing the frontlines.

The plan was outlined in a confidential document presented by senior U.S. officials to their Ukrainian and European counterparts in Paris on April 17.

Earlier, Zelenskyy repeatedly reiterated that Ukraine would never recognize the occupied territories as Russian and would defend its sovereignty.