Russia ramping up operations in Moldova's breakaway Transnistria region

Conscription measures have reportedly intensified in the so-called PMR: reservists are being called up to the quasi-entity's military formations, and weapons are being demothballed at depots. In addition, drone production has been launched in Transnistria, along with training centers for operators.

"The active measures the Kremlin is implementing are aimed at strengthening Russia's presence in Transnistria, which Moscow uses to destabilize Moldova and create a flashpoint on the border with Ukraine's southern regions — the risk of sabotage group infiltration into Ukraine is rising," NV sources said.

Interlocutors told NV that to achieve its goals, Russia is transferring special service agents to Transnistria, who have been ordered to intensify "crisis phenomena," sow chaos through information operations, commit provocations and carry out sabotage.

As NV sources noted, after Gazprom halted supplies at the start of 2025, gas-dependent Transnistria was saved from collapse by Moldova's authorities — the critically important energy resource is now sold to the so-called PMR by Moldovagaz.

The Kremlin's focus on Transnistria indicates the start of a new hybrid operation tied to preparations for so-called "presidential elections" in the unrecognized PMR in 2026.

According to NV sources, Russia's goal is to once again make Tiraspol dependent on free Russian gas, improve the image of local pro-Russian leaders and quietly increase the size of its military contingent in the region. All this is to give the Kremlin the ability to quickly use the accumulated forces if needed and provoke a new escalation.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu previously stated that Russian company Gazprom is deliberately creating an energy crisis in unrecognized Transnistria, despite Moldova having a gas supply contract.

NV Business wrote that Transnistria is freezing for the sake of Russian propaganda against Ukraine.

On Sept. 22, Sandu said that if Russia establishes control over Moldova, the country could become a launchpad for a further invasion of Odesa Oblast.