Latest security guarantees draft calls for European troops on Ukrainian soil—report

In an article published on Dec. 16, the journalists warned that there is little reason to believe Moscow would agree to scale back its appetite for dramatically constraining Ukraine’s sovereignty.

“American and European diplomats meeting with Ukraine’s leaders over the past two days in Berlin have mostly signed off on the security guarantees, the officials said publicly and privately,” NYT writes, citing sources.

“Still, a broad cease-fire appears to remain out of reach for the moment, in part because Russia is not a party to these negotiations.”

In terms of Ukrainian concessions, the draft would limit the peacetime size of Ukraine’s military to 800,000 troops, down from around 900,000 current personnel. Maintaining a military of this size will demand sustained support from the West for years to come. At the same time, the report did not specify if any limits would be placed on the number of reservists Kyiv could keep trained, ready to be called up on short notice.

The European partners have reportedly agreed to deploy a force in western Ukraine—far from the likely ceasefire line—to “secure the skies and seas.”

“Those troops are expected to be based in western Ukraine, away from any cease-fire line, to serve as another level of deterrence against any future Russian aggression,” the NYT wrote.

The United States will be tasked with monitoring compliance with the ceasefire terms, given Washington’s access to unique intelligence infrastructure to prevent either side from staging false flag attacks or provocations.

“…, the operational document provides detail about how the United States would use its vast intelligence systems to help monitor the ceasefire and detect Russian activity aimed at re-entering the rest of Ukraine … ,” the report said.

“The Americans would also help verify Russian compliance and make sure that minor skirmishes between Russia and Ukraine do not spiral into a new war.”

Although no statements from Russian officials suggest Moscow would agree to any of these proposed arrangements, the United States seems to be convinced that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin will ultimately acquiesce, according to the NYT.

“U.S. officials said Monday that the territorial issue remains a roadblock but expressed confidence, despite Mr. Putin’s public comments, that he would eventually accept the presence of European forces in Ukraine not operating under the banner of NATO,” the article said, citing unnamed sources.

Kyiv’s priority is to make sure that the security guarantees are legally binding, reflecting the painful lesson of the toothless 1994 Budapest Memorandum. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously said that U.S. President Donald Trump did not object to putting the deal before the U.S. Senate. The report, however, points out that it does not necessarily mean a fully-fledged, Senate-ratified treaty.

“U.S. officials said that Mr. Trump had agreed to submit the security guarantees to the Senate, where treaties are typically ratified, though they did not make clear whether they would formally submit the guarantees as a treaty,” the journalists write.

The joint framework for a ceasefire deal and security guarantees will be finalized in the coming days, according to Zelenskyy. U.S. negotiators will then present the proposals to their Russian counterparts. The fate of the weeks-long U.S. push to broker a peace deal will therefore lie with the Kremlin and its willingness to accept favorable, but less-than-declared terms on which the 46 months of brutal fighting might end.