Expert on who is behind leak of Witkoff-Ushakov call, and what’s next for Ukraine talks

Radio NV: Let’s start with Steve Witkoff’s role. He advised Ushakov that before a meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there should be a phone call between Putin and Trump. That Putin should definitely call Trump a ‘president of peace’ and congratulate him on his success in brokering the Middle East settlement between Israel and Hamas. I have almost no doubt that the Russians leaked all these conversations. And to top it off, fragments of the Ushakov-Dmitriev talk were also leaked, where they discuss that this would be their plan. So why did the Russians leak this, and where does it go from here?

Maksym Nesvitaylov: The idea that the Russians leaked it is, in my view, the most plausible working hypothesis. Why did they do it? Because from the start, they never planned to take these negotiations seriously. Even that 28-point plan, which looked very favorable and promising for them, they didn’t push hard in the media. They didn’t express any overly optimistic stance.

They could have gone public and said: ‘Look, it’s a great plan — either we sign it and the war stops tomorrow, or if we don’t, Ukraine bears all the blame for continuing the war.’ After that, we’d face enormous pressure. But the point is, Russia isn’t interested in ending the war.

They floated this plan to sow discord, to drive a wedge between Ukraine and our allies, to test how well it might work, to create chaos — and importantly, from an economic standpoint, to delay sanctions.

How was it supposed to play out? It’s worked every time before, whenever the U.S. — alone or with allies — issued some ultimatum to Russia with deadlines. Then, right before the deadline, Putin calls Trump, or some signals come from Russia, and everything grinds to a halt. It gets renegotiated, they give the Russians more time to ‘think,’ and they say Ukraine isn’t really trying hard enough.

And when did this happen? Right before sanctions against the Russian Federation were set to kick in, this leak drops, the plan emerges, and it makes sense to start talking about it, discussing it. Of course, how can there be sanctions if a peace plan is already on the table?

But this time, it didn’t work. This time, people started working on the deal rationally. Ukraine didn’t reject it outright. They didn’t expect that. So they decided: Let’s discredit the whole thing even more, so the Americans look bad, and no sane ally can trust them anymore.

After all, if your special envoy — your own guy — is teaching your opponents how to deceive you, how to sell their position to you, how to betray your own allies, who could trust the U.S. after that? Even from a pure business perspective. They say Trump’s a businessman... These are just hucksters.

The best way to describe Witkoff — in polite terms — is as a real estate broker. That word says it all. Anyone who’s ever dealt with folks in that ancient profession knows their nature.

Radio NV: And Donald Trump essentially started defending Steve Witkoff. His comment to reporters aboard Air Force One: ‘This is standard practice. He has to ‘sell’ this to Ukraine. He has to ‘sell’ Ukraine to Russia. That is what a dealmaker does.’ He claimed he hadn’t personally heard the leaked audio but saw nothing unusual in it. Essentially, it’s an attempt to cover for Witkoff as his buddy, his partner. But won’t Americans start asking a different question: Why is your partner working for Russia, for the counterparts you’re supposed to be pressuring? I think that question will be in focus now. And maybe that’s exactly the pressure on Donald Trump and the U.S. administration that the Russians were hoping for when they leaked this audio?

Maksym Nesvitaylov: To some extent, yes. But how perfect is that quote? When asked if he’d heard it and what he thinks, he says: ‘No, I haven’t heard it, I don’t know what it’s about, but I think it’s normal.’ Just listen to the essence of those words: He has no idea what it’s about, but he’s already saying it’s fine.

Of course, Donald Trump will never admit defeat. He’ll never acknowledge mistakes — not his own, not those of his inner circle. He’s used to getting quiet revenge on them, at least that’s the approach he tries if they don’t go public against him.

Overall, I think there’ll be a very serious talk with Witkoff, because this is an extraordinarily big setup.

And if they kept going — by the way, Witkoff suggested Putin propose what’s needed so they could meet, and then agree on a summit in Budapest; if Witkoff went further and started advising how to behave with Trump at a personal meeting...

Radio NV: Now let’s get to the details of these negotiations. In the United Arab Emirates, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met with unnamed people representing Russia. Some sources say Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate in the Defense Ministry, was there in Abu Dhabi too. There’s info that the number of points was cut from 28 to 19. But I think focusing on the number of points in the plan is beside the point. Where are we now in this coordination, and are we moving in the right direction?

Maksym Nesvitaylov: Right now, it’s all just running in place. A very serious, tense imitation of vigorous activity. Pretty much all the players understand this plan will fizzle out and end up in a long drawer.

But Donald Trump needs some activity to happen, some show of a peacemaking process. For him, it’s not about the result — it’s about how it looks. Just like with the Middle East peace. What happened between Israel and Hamas — that’s a catastrophe that’ll lead to even graver consequences. There was a 20-point plan there, by the way. When Witkoff was selling this story to the Russians, he said: ‘Think about it, we had a 20-point plan — something like that, we need points. Trump liked those 20 points when we stopped the war in Gaza. Do something similar.’

They couldn’t fit into 20 points, so they made 28. And after the first point was fulfilled — Israel withdrew its troops — that was it. The other 19 stayed unfulfilled. So that’s the story.

But is that a problem for Trump? Same here. You can try as hard as you want to explain to him that peace is impossible in this format, but he won’t hear it. So you have to do something: Travel to negotiations, make deals, give ground here, hold firm there — all to show we’re engaged. And then, when the Russians finally bail — and for me, there’s no clearer sign of them bailing than this leak — it’ll all go quiet for a while.

We’ll have another one-and-a-half to two months to prepare in working mode for possible real negotiations, ones the Russians might theoretically be open to if China decides, for whatever reason, not to back them anymore.