Military expert on situation in Avdiivka and how it might develop – interview

NV: Avdiivka remains the hottest sector. The day before, some reports suggested that Ukraine’s 3^rd Assault Brigade was deployed there. What should we understand about the situation in the area?

Zhyrokhov: It’s hell now, to put it in a few words. The Russians are advancing in Avdiivka, in low-density residential areas. So far, they have not taken the key points, i.e. the so-called 9th District, which is located on elevated terrain, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant. They are unlikely to take it, but the situation is very close to critical there.

As for the deployment of the 3^rd Assault Brigade, it’s not yet clear whether it was thrown into the hell of urban fights, or whether our command is planning some kind of counterattack that will force the enemy to reduce pressure on Avdiivka.

NV: Some suggest that Ukrainian forces may try to disrupt Russian efforts to capture Avdiivka if they strike somewhere in the Russians’ flank. What can you say about that?

Zhyrokhov: It’s obvious that one brigade isn’t enough to [successfully] strike at the flanks. Therefore, we need at least two or three more brigades. I don’t know whether [Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr] Syrskyi currently has the reserves to transfer [troops] from other front sectors to launch a counteroffensive.

This brigade will probably conduct rearguard fighting that will let our forces withdraw from Avdiivka. This is one of the options, because, for example, Mr. Syrskyi has the experience of a very successful withdrawal of our troops from Debaltseve in 2015. Maybe he’ll use this experience, or maybe the experience of Bakhmut, which, unfortunately, wasn’t very successful in late 2022.

NV: Dmytro Lykhoviy, the new spokesman for the Tavria Defense Forces, says that well-trained Russian units are now deployed to Avdiivka. Can we assume that the enemy is now making a key bet on the town? Do they need it so much that they have already deployed paratroopers and special forces there?

Zhyrokhov: I wouldn’t say that it’s something unique. The Russians use paratroopers and SOF units while mustering others. That is, they need time to prepare new units, at least for combat coordination.

Our media often report that they [enemy units] are thrown [in battle] from the wheels, right from the train. No, they spend 10-14 days at the training grounds, practice at least shooting a Kalashnikov assault rifle, basic things like that. When new units undergo training, it’s the professional troops that are thrown [onto the battlefield] during this period. This is a very short period of time. I think we’ll see Storm-Z [units] again very soon, some assault units that will act as cannon fodder.