Putin faces serious dilemma regarding future mobilization in Russia, UA military expert says

Mobilization has been imposed on Putin since the spring of this year, especially when the losses of the Russian occupying forces exceeded 30,000 per month. But he does not take this step and here is why.

First, Putin perfectly understands the difference between someone who voluntarily goes to kill Ukrainians for a reward and assesses the risks of being also killed, and someone who is forcibly sent to fight. Those, sent to war forcibly, will surrender at the first opportunity.

Conscripts from Kursk Oblast make the best and the most striking example. Almost 2,000 prisoners were taken only in the first week of hostilities! 

Imagine the forced mobilization of 300,000 in Russia, and should 10% of them surrender, that will be an exchange fund - and a disaster for the regime.

Second, the matter of equipment. The Russian army already witnesses shortage of equipment in the existing units — amounting to 60%-70%! And if there are more, let's say, plus 300 thousand people, where does the equipment for them come from? That is, they will not be able to perform combat tasks, and they will both die more and be captured even more due to the feeling of being betrayed and feeling defeated.

Therefore, Putin is now facing a serious dilemma — he will not be able to pull through without mobilization, but with mobilization, he will get a situational, one-time solution for a certain time, but resulting in a complete global failure in the long run.