Most Ukrainians reject trading Donbas for security guarantees, new poll finds

Researchers noted that public opinion on the issue has remained largely unchanged since mid-January.

Only 4% of respondents believe the war will end in the coming weeks, while 16% expect it to conclude during the first half of 2026. Another 18% anticipate it ending in the second half of the year, but 43% believe the war will continue into 2027 or beyond. Meanwhile, 65% said they are ready to endure the war for as long as necessary — up from 62% in both September and December 2025.

The poll also shows growing support for Ukrainian strikes on non-military targets inside Russia, while an overwhelming majority continues to back strikes on Russian territory in general.

The survey was conducted via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) using randomly generated mobile numbers and statistical weighting. It included 1,003 adult respondents (18 and older) living in government-controlled areas of Ukraine. Residents of temporarily occupied territories were excluded.

On Jan. 16, KIIS reported that most Ukrainians continue to believe the country can sustain effective resistance at the front despite ongoing Russian advances.

U.S. security guarantees — recent developments

On Jan. 28, U.S. officials told Kyiv that receiving security guarantees from Washington would require Ukraine to sign a peace agreement with Russia, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 22, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the document outlining U.S. security guarantees for Ukraine was complete and awaiting presidential signatures.

In his remarks, Zelenskyy stressed that no security guarantees would be viable without the United States. He added that France and the United Kingdom had expressed willingness to send troops to Ukraine — but only after the war ends.

In December 2025, Zelenskyy said Ukraine was working with U.S. and European partners on three separate agreements concerning national security and postwar reconstruction.

On Jan. 12, he said he had instructed his team to finalize and submit the U.S. security guarantees proposal for top-level review, calling it “a document of historic significance.”