4,400 pages of defense: NATO crafts sweeping plan to counter possible Russian attack

The document, titled Concept for the Deterrence Line on the Eastern Flank, was developed under the supervision of NATO’s Allied Land Command and involved all 32 member states.

The plan outlines a broad range of defensive measures, including reinforcing combat units, deploying heavy military equipment, expanding the use of drones and autonomous systems, and improving coordination and intelligence-sharing among allies.

According to a former senior NATO general, Russia is already in the so-called “Phase Zero,” preparing for a possible confrontation with the Alliance through troop buildups, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, reconnaissance operations, and other activity near NATO borders.

He warned that the highest risk of a Russian attack on NATO territory — especially in the Baltic states — would likely emerge after the war in Ukraine ends, when Moscow could shift its military resources northward.

At the same time, NATO command and defense analysts note that there is currently no direct likelihood of a full-scale war.

What’s raising concern within the Alliance, however, is Russia’s ongoing military reorganization and its repositioning of troops closer to NATO’s western borders. Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Kaupo Rosin said this will inevitably lead to a stronger Russian military presence near NATO territory. He recalled that some of these same units were previously deployed to Ukraine for combat shortly after limited drills.

Since Sept. 10, 2025, Russia has been routinely violating NATO airspace. During this time, Russian drones, aircraft, and unidentified UAVs have been repeatedly spotted over Poland, Romania, Estonia, Denmark, the United States, France, Germany, and Norway.

On Sept. 23, during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York, Donald Trump said NATO countries “must shoot down” Russian aircraft if they enter Allied airspace.

Just two days later, on Sept. 25, Russian Ambassador to France Alexei Meshkov warned on RTL radio that if NATO shoots down a Russian plane, it would mark the start of a military conflict.