NATO, Russia discussed pulling forces to 1997 borders before 2022 Ukraine invasion

Journalist Meelis Oidsalu analyzed the memoir of then-NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg. The book, titled On My Watch: Leading NATO in a Time of War, was published in November 2025. Oidsalu concluded that Stoltenberg “betrayed the Baltic countries in 2021.”

In the memoir, Stoltenberg describes meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in the fall of 2021. According to his account, he proposed discussing at the NATO-Russia Council Moscow’s suggestion to create a buffer zone along Russia’s borders and to pull NATO forces back to their 1997 positions. Stoltenberg acknowledges he acted, in effect, “behind the backs” of the Baltic states and Poland.

Oidsalu wrote that Stoltenberg’s willingness to raise the idea with Lavrov may have been linked to the United States’ soon-after public openness to discussing troop deployments. He suggested the initial move may have been coordinated between the NATO secretary-general and U.S. officials, and called it an “extremely unpleasant moment for the Baltic countries."

The journalist noted that Norway would not have been affected because it joined NATO long before 1997 and asked whether Stoltenberg would have made the same proposal if it had concerned his own country.

Poland joined NATO in 1999, and the Baltic states joined in 2004, so a reversion to 1997 positions would have most affected those countries, Oidsalu wrote. He added that an approach that treats normalization with Russia as a way to “keep channels of communication open” would be deeply damaging to trust and consensus within the alliance.