Analyst warns of difficult winter for Ukraine amid constant Russian drone strikes

He stated that Ukraine is unlikely to see any large-scale solution to this problem in the near future.

Even when countermeasures are developed – such as air defense systems designed to intercept jet-powered kamikaze drones and “ersatz missiles” (like the Banderol, Dan-T/M, or Geran-5 – which is less of a drone and more of a makeshift missile based on the Iranian Karrar) – scaling up the production of such systems takes time.

The Russians are fully aware of this limitation and will likely continue their campaign of terror against civilian populations and areas in Ukraine's immediate rear.

Ukraine, in turn, must prepare for the reality that air defense interception rates will not return to the 90% to 95% efficiency levels achieved just a few months ago.

The analyst warned that Russia will attempt to make the fall-winter period of 2026–2027 as grueling as possible for Ukrainians, using this specific window of opportunity to sustain its campaign of terror. As a result, the country must prepare for a profoundly difficult and exhausting winter that will truly test its resilience.

Kovalenko emphasized that these Russian strikes deliberately target the civilian population, actions that constitute both war crimes and the genocide of civilians.

While Ukraine launches almost daily precision strikes against Russian targets – disrupting military-industrial facilities, oil refineries, economic infrastructure, and logistics networks that Moscow struggles to defend – the strikes targeting Ukraine remain far more painful due to the deliberate killing of civilians and the campaign of terror against the population.

Kovalenko noted a third critical point: these Russian actions are driven by a total failure on the battlefield, arguing that Moscow's summer offensive ended in an absolute fiasco.

He added that while Russia's fall offensive campaign is now underway, it has yielded no phenomenal results. Instead, Ukrainian defense forces continue to demonstrate their effectiveness through successful counterattacks and the liberation of occupied territories.

Kovalenko believes the Russian command will likely respond by trying to pressure the Ukrainian public through terror and by using state television broadcasts to stoke panic and spread chaos.