According to Butusov, Ukrainian troops have started making gains in the city as early as October, with none of them being reported by officials or media.
“That preserved the element of surprise; our colleagues at the respected [open-source intelligence] portal DeepState also showed restraint; they had accurate intelligence but did not publish it,” he said.
Butusov suggested that the operational security regime allowed Ukrainian forces to strike unexpectedly at strategic and operational levels. On Nov. 20, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, head of Russia’s General Staff, claimed they had “completely liberated Kupyansk.” Ukrainian troops immediately recognized the claim as false and evidence of Russian confusion, Butusov added.
Russian disorientation was further highlighted when Moscow awarded the title Hero of Russia and promoted several generals assigned to the Kupyansk front. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s leadership remained silent on the offensive’s progress. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s surprise appearance on the outskirts of Kupyansk has shaken Russia’s confidence in its own battlefield awareness, Butusov said.
He said the two-and-a-half-month operation unfolded in near “information silence,” creating a dramatic impact when Ukraine revealed its gains.
“The enemy built up expectations that were shattered by the arrival of our [Supreme] Commander in Chief,” he said.