Dallas Analytics cited internal correspondence between Russian defense enterprises published by independent outlet The Insider.
The report said the fault is linked to the GU-503 gyroscope, a Soviet-era instrument adapted for Oreshnik. The device serves as the missile’s internal stabilization mechanism, and analysts say even a half-degree attitude deviation at hypersonic speeds can produce a miss of tens of kilometers.
In a March 18, 2025, letter, the Michurinsk Progress plant told its customer that serial production of the GU-503 had been halted, that the testing and calibration equipment for the part dated to the early 1970s and was “morally obsolete,” and that many components had failed and could not be replaced.
“The internal correspondence from the Michurinsk Plant explicitly flags the wholesale loss of production technology for the specialized equipment designated for the adjustment, calibration, and prirabotka (the intensive burn-in testing where components are run under heavy loads to eliminate hidden manufacturing flaws) of the GU-503,” the report said.
“Even when the workshop manages to procure or somehow assemble the instrument, the facility lacks the capability to verify the gyroscope’s exact precision metrics prior to final assembly. This specific manufacturing defect directly explains why subsequent Oreshnik missiles have been erratically striking civilian infrastructure instead of assigned military targets.”
Examination of debris from Oreshnik missiles that fell in Ukraine showed GU-503 markings dated 2025, suggesting a modern replacement proposed at Progress was never developed, Dallas Analytics said.
“As air raid sirens echo across Ukraine while the Kapustin Yar test range conducts its latest launch drills, the West must see the Oreshnik for what it truly is,” the article added.
“It is the product of an isolated regime that masks
structural weaknesses behind aggressive escalatory threats. Russia remains a
volatile adversary whose uncalibrated weapons and political will pose a global
threat. Unified international pressure is the only strategic response capable
of neutralizing it.”