Poland bracing for possible Belarusian provocations to ‘disrupt stability’

Wonsik claimed that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko might attempt to interfere in the upcoming Polish elections.

“We’re aware that Alexander Lukashenko could endeavor to meddle in the Polish elections, thereby unsettling the situation and orchestrating various provocative actions,” Wonsik said.

He also underscored that Poland was carefully monitoring the situation on the Belarusian-Polish border.

Poland’s parliamentary elections are scheduled for Oct. 15 – a significant date on the country’s democratic calendar that will determine the composition of the Sejm and Senate (the lower and upper houses of the Polish parliament, respectively).

The last round of general elections in the country took place in 2019.

Tensions between Belarus and Poland have been rising for more than a month.

On July 1, the Polish Ministry of Defense revealed that two Belarusian helicopters had reportedly crossed the Polish border at an unusually low altitude, making them difficult to detect. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense promptly denied the Polish statement, but video of the event was soon circulating on social media.

Local Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts identified the Belarusian helicopters as a Mi-8 and Mi-24, which flew over the center of Bialowieza. Local residents also reportedly captured photographs of these helicopters.

Poland’s Operational Command of the Armed Forces had previously denied allegations of airspace infringement. Lieutenant Colonel Jacek Goryszewski maintained that Belarus had provided prior notice of the operation involving up to three helicopters in the border vicinity. He emphasized that these flights were for “training purposes.”

On July 20, Poland’s Minister of Defense, Mariusz Blaszczak, announced the deployment of a contingent of its forces to the eastern border in response to the reported arrival of Wagner PMC mercenaries in Belarus.

In a show of solidarity, Germany’s Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, affirmed his nation’s readiness to support Poland should any aggression emerge from the Wagner Group within Belarus.

Poland’s Ministry of Internal Affairs has not ruled out the possibility of neighboring European Union countries sealing their borders in response to provocations by the Wagner Group.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki disclosed on July 29 that over one hundred members affiliated with the so-called Wagner Group are allegedly en route to the Suwalki Corridor – a 100-kilometer stretch marking the border between Poland and Lithuania.

These Wagner Group members are reported to have entered Belarus following an unsuccessful one-day coup attempt orchestrated by their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on June 24.